The 5 Reasons ISIS Will Win Iraq

1.  Will

"All wars are first won in the temples." ISIS has demonstrated a vicious will, exterminating everyone in its path. Its will outstrips the will of the Shia, who have committed a paltry number of troops and militia to halting a well organized military advance. It goes without saying that the United States possesses no will to intervene, nor should it. Shia fighting Sunni in the Middle East, while creating instability, will also create a situation of which the United States can take advantage. In fact, the only reason to intervene would be to head off Russian or Chinese involvement in the civil war. I will suggest that, if it appears others will try to take strategic advantage, we should intervene and intervene with decisive, violent and merciless force - and then stay there.

2.  Organization

It is no surprise to me that ISIS, which actually is made up of both Al Qaeda and former Saddam forces, is better organized than the Shiites. Sunni make up only 30% of Iraq, but they ruled the country for decades. Saddam Hussein, a violent but well organized man, understood how to maintain power through the use of military force. At one point, he had reigned over Iraq's majority Shiite population and managed to fight a brutal war against Shiite Iran. His military was fierce, dedicated and professional. The Shiite militias did not stand a chance then and they do not stand a chance now. The Iranian "Kuds" force (Iranian special forces) are probably pretty well organized themselves, but they are badly outnumbered, and lack substantial military equipment. They will make the fight more brutal but, ultimately, they will retreat when they see that strategic victory is impossible.

3.  Military Equipment

Which leads me to number three. ISIS has taken over more than half of Iraq and confiscated a substantial amount of military hardware, including U.S. made weaponry. They are well equipped, and because they have all been trained to use the equipment during the Hussein years, they will be effective. The Shiite militias are poorly trained, have older equipment, and are poorly organized. 25 guys with AK's in a fleet of Toyota pickups are still no match for one tank.

4.  Strategic Purpose

Akin to Will is strategic purpose. ISIS has a strategic goal in mind. Namely, to take over a nation-state, organize a large Sunni military presence in the Middle East, and then attack their enemies. While they may focus on the United States, their primary focus will always be the Shia. The Shia, on the other hand, have only a limited strategic goal in this conflict. While they do not want to see a Sunni Iraq, they already have a nation-state from which to develop their military and political objectives. Holding Iraq, while important, is secondary to maintaining their perceived hegemony in the Middle East. The Shia make up such a large majority of Muslims that they take their military and tactical capabilities for granted. They assume that they can win any war by sheer numbers. They cannot, and they never have. Saddam Hussein proved that in the decades that he ruled Iraq and the decade that he fought Iran to a humiliating stalemate.

5.  Lack of Western Commitment

I touched on this in number one. The only way the current Iraqi government is going to prevail is if some powerful country from outside the middle east intervenes. I do not put it past Putin to meddle. For him, this is yet another golden opportunity to insert Russian influence into the vacuum left by Obama's global retreat. Russia has already made significant commitments to Iran, and he could strengthen his bargaining leverage by establishing a military foothold in Iraq. 

That said, there has been almost no sign that any other country intends to intervene. U.S. airpower and special forces will not make a decisive impact on the outcome, I am sorry to say. Airpower alone has never been decisive and special forces are too small in number to occupy and hold territory.

Conclusion

I understand that it is difficult to watch Iraq fall after so much was lost and so many men and women sacrificed so much. Certainly American pride has been shaken to the core, just like when we evacuated Vietnam. The fact is, whether to you agree or disagree with the decision to go in, we fought the war all wrong, and we were never willing to stay long enough to truly build a nation. We turned over power to the Iraqis too soon and we left too soon. We also never fully defeated the Sunnis or Al Qaeda before the withdrawal, leaving the Iraqi government extremely vulnerable. 

Critics will argue that we precipitously withdrew because we had no choice - the Iraqis threw us out. Fine, but I submit to you that it really never should have been their choice. They didn't need a feckless interim government. They didn't need U.S. military hardware. They didn't need autonomy. They needed to surrender, be occupied, be re-educated, submit, then given a new form of government. Then we needed to maintain a large military presence in the country, basically forever, to watch over things and ensure compliance with the peaceful democratic ideals we died to bring to them. That is principally how you wage an idealogical war. But, because we were not willing to fight the war with conviction, we lost the peace.