Death to America

President Obama was a confident man last week as he announced a true non-deal with Iran on nuclear weapons. Although most of the particulars still have to be resolved, the President is comfortable that he has secured peace in our time with a deal to delay Iran's nuclear break-out. As the President's advisors triumphantly touted their foreign policy coup, Iran's supreme leader and his followers touted theirs. Just the day before, Iran's Supreme Leader assuaged the Iranian media about the larger meaning of doing a deal with America. The message was short and to the point. After Friday prayers he led his people in a familiar chant: "Death to America." That same day, another high level official proclaimed that "wiping Israel from the map" is "non-negotiable." 

A common sight. The image posted outside the former American Embassy. [John Flicker].

President Obama's achievement with this deal, even if everything goes according to plan, is really quite modest. Iran's nuclear program is delayed for ten years, but it does not end Iran's ability to continue the science or engineering work necessary to create a deliverable nuclear missile. It simply forces them to temporarily halt the production of the materials necessary to develop a nuclear core. Delaying does not halt. It delays.

At the same time, however, President Obama has also managed to isolate Israel and the Arab states. Obama of all people should be sensitive to the idea of a group of western nations negotiating the fate of a people without anyone else in the region at the table. The people most impacted by these negotiations, the Saudis, Yemenis, Egyptians, Emerites and Israelis, were excluded from the process. In essence, the West has once again descended upon the Middle East to carve it up, against the wishes of the indigenous population. It takes supreme arrogance to announce a deal on behalf of a group of states in the region that have no intention of abiding by it, are not a party to it, and do not ultimately believe they will benefit from it. It is colonial imperialism at its worst.

Along those same lines, the President has undoubtedly sparked an arms race. The Saudis in particular hate Iran. Iran is not an Arab state. Iranians are mostly Persian. Persians and Arabs have been fighting one another even longer than Sunnis and Shias. There is no way the Arabs are going to let the Persians have a nuclear weapon ten years from now without developing their own deterrent. Nor are they going to sit around a wait to see if Iran sticks to the deal. The Arab states are in a much better position to build or buy a bomb before Iran does. These are rich nations, with modern western technology. They are also our "friends." The Saudis are developing nuclear weapons as we speak, and we are not going to be in a position to stop them. That is particularly true now. Going forward, the Saudis will always have the excuse that we let Iran do it. So why not us? We are your "allies."

The President also managed to show other rogue nations that developing nuclear weapons is profitable. Iran is a state sponsor of terrorism, attacked Americans in Iraq, and continues to advocate for the destruction of Israel. They are also now embroiled in two proxy wars with our Arab allies in the region. Yet, because they were close to getting a bomb, we imbued them with the type of global respect most nations have to earn through peaceful cooperation. Iran is not a "great power" or "regional hegemony" in the Middle East, no matter what the Obama administration says. They are an economically and militarily weak theocracy, whose only claim to legitimacy is that the West wants desperately to reach a deal with them. The West now has elevated Iran to a level of respect and importance that they not only do not deserve, but also cannot sustain. The Arab states will literally blow up the deal long before Iran has a chance to demonstrate compliance. Even if that were not the case, the first moment that Saudi Arabia breaks out to a nuclear weapon, the Iranians will be forced to abandon the deal. Iran cannot survive in the Middle East without its own deterrent any more than the Arab states can. Peace in our time and "regional stability" will give way to an arms race, all out war, and perhaps even a nuclear exchange.

In contrast to President Obama's Pyrrhic victory, Iran's achievement is really quite stunning. In the course of one presidency, Iran has, for all intents and purposes, achieved a nuclear weapon. It has used that achievement to force the Western powers to the negotiating table to remove sanctions. They then forced the West to concede all current sanctions in exchange for a mere delay in that nuclear program. They did not even have to revise their global political objectives, which include the deaths of Americans and Jews.

The have also succeeded in creating divisions between the United States and the rest of the Middle East, including Israel and Saudi Arabia. It is a classic divide and conquer strategy, and the "conquering" part is not even part of the discussion. If the West doesn't like Iran's long term strategic goals, there is nothing that they can do about it without Iran abandoning the deal and breaking out to a nuclear weapon. Two months later NATO will have to revise its battle plans in Iran to include the field use of tactical nuclear weapons. Forcing us to alter our military doctrine in the region is a strategic achievement in and of itself that should embarrass Western leaders.

And, lastly, as if it were part of the agreement itself, they continue to mock us. As hundreds of thousands of Iranians take to the streets after Friday prayers chanting "Death to America," our people are forced to wonder whether our next war in the Middle East will be a nuclear war. Iran has forced the West to humiliate itself in order to avoid a winnable war. But as any Arab will tell you, "when people see a strong horse and a weak horse, by nature they will like the strong horse." The West is the weak horse.

I would choose a different Arab proverb, however. "Those who have a weakness tend to show it," and we have all been exposed.