It seems to most observers, Democrats included, that the Republican Party has all the momentum in the 2016 elections. Just yesterday, for example, the 5th Circuit Court of Appeals upheld a ruling that effectively blocks President Obama's attempt at unilaterally implementing immigration reforms. Obamacare is a failure, and our enemies are on the march. The Clinton campaign appears to be in trouble, wrought with scandal, and the Republican field appears strong. Beneath the shifting tides, however, there is a storm gathering. Republican candidates will have to demonstrate to the American people that they are willing and able to tackle the bigger challenges that lay ahead, not just sit on the sidelines and protest liberal policies. It will start in earnest with the primaries as the field takes shape. Below are four issues Republicans will have to address with detailed planning and a genuine interest in solving the problems.
ISIS
For a year now, Republicans have more or less been able to sit back and criticize the President's Middle Eastern policy, in particular his half-hearted war against ISIS. Republicans have largely gotten away with this because the President's genuine failure in the region has far outweighed the politics of it all. Even though it was President Bush's fault that we went into Iraq, it became President Obama's baby to rock when he decided to precipitously withdraw from the country against the advice of almost everybody in government and the military.
It is clear, however, that the threat is growing, and whoever becomes the next President will have to have a plan for successfully dealing with it. The fact of the matter is, ISIS has a good chance of winning the war in Iraq and Syria without U.S. intervention. While a strong argument can be made that U.S. intervention is unwarranted, President Obama has forced the issue by putting American prestige and influence on the line with his current policy. If the United States were to abandon the region entirely, and if ISIS were to take Iraq and Syria, it is very likely that our allies in the Middle East would abandon us in kind. That power vacuum will be filled by someone, probably Russia, China or Iran.
Republicans are no longer able to engage in hypothetical debates about the failure of the President's policies, however. Each candidate will have to announce on the record what he or she would do to stabilize the region, preserve American influence, and avoid a larger war. It is unclear to me how those objectives can be achieved at this point without "boots on the ground" and yet another large-scale war. What is even murkier is how any candidate can win an election in the current climate by espousing war. These are questions that will have to be answered, and so far the candidates have not been pressed.
Immigration
Republicans were given a free pass by President Obama when he decided to use executive power to unilaterally implement sweeping immigration reforms. As I pointed out last year, the President took complete ownership of an issue that has divided Republicans for decades. For those who are interested, you can find the article here. http://libertyswindow.blogspot.com/2014/11/the-good-and-bad-of-president-obamas.html
Now that the President's immigration actions have been halted by the courts, the onus will fall once again on Republicans, who control both houses of Congress, to propose legislation. Likewise, Republican Presidential candidates will have to take a position on immigration, which has been an albatross around the neck of every Republican politician who has tried. Marco Rubio, for example, has had to almost completely repudiate the plan that he proposed 18 months ago in order to have any chance of winning the nomination. It will no longer be enough to simply attack the President for his unilateral actions and the consequences of those actions. The Republicans will have to come up with a plan that has a realistic chance of solving the problem without alienating the base of the party. Again, in an election year, this is going to be a tall order.
Tax Reform
If there is one thing the rank and file conservatives in this nation have had enough of, it's taxes. All grass-root followers of any wing of the Republican Party have been greatly disappointed in the complete and utter failure of the party to effect any meaningful tax reform. Bush, Sr. raised taxes. The Republican Party took control of the House in 1994 and did almost nothing on taxes. Bush, Jr. got elected and made minor reforms to the code, really only addressing a small part of the problem. This was in spite of the fact that Republicans held both houses of Congress at the time. Republicans are now in control again, and there is no consensus of any kind on tax reform.
Several candidates are recycling some old ideas that never really have gained any traction. Governor Huckabee is for a national sales tax. Several others are for a flat tax. Several are for a reduction in marginal rates. It seems to me that the party as a whole would do better if it agreed on one detailed tax reform proposal and then shopped it to the American people. Whether that be the flat tax or the national sales tax, conflicting messages from candidates and Congressmen will be self-defeating. It's time to pick one plan and run with it on a national level.
Russia
Russia has become a serious world threat. Their nearly $400 billion in military upgrades over the last 6 years far outstrips every nation in the world except the United States, who was engaged in two wars, and China. Russia spent $86.4 billion last year alone, and has roughly doubled their expenditures since invading Ukraine. President Obama's response has been weak and ineffectual to say the least. There really has not been any pause in the fighting, there hasn't been a meaningful cease-fire, and the current "pause" in Russian expansion reflects more of a strategic choice than a concession.
Like with the ISIS issue, Republicans have so far gotten away with simply attacking President Obama's policies. Several have suggested arming Ukraine. Several have suggested beefing up our NATO presence in the region. Still, no one has articulated a coherent policy or strategy to bring Putin to heel. The mere suggestion of another large European war terrifies most members of the press, who in turn terrify the public. Indeed, a large scale European war would be terrifying. But the quickest route to war is and has always been appeasement. Appeasement encourages bad actors to continue acting badly. It allows rogue nations or rogue leaders the room they need to build their militaries and marshall their forces. It feeds nationalist fervor and silences more moderate voices inside hostile governments. In short, it is a terrible strategy which has proved disastrous throughout history.
If the Republicans control the Congress and the White House, they will own this problem. If there is something in between appeasement and a renewal of cold war brinkmanship, now is the time to articulate it. So far, the proposals have been modest. Like the other issues, however, it seems nearly impossible to win an election by threatening to heighten tensions with Russia, even if the long term benefit to the world is obvious.
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