Several readers have asked me what I thought about the candidates' performance in the second tier debate, which was held earlier the same day. The truth is, these candidates are polling so badly that it is very unlikely at this point that one of them would get the nomination. What's so interesting however, is that in any other election year these candidates would be favorites to win. Bobby Jindal, Rick Perry, and George Pataki all served two terms as governors of their states. They all have impressive records in their respective states, and they all have fairly significant organizational support behind their campaigns. Rick Santorum nearly took the nomination from Mitt Romney in 2012, winning 11 states and earning 4 million votes. To think of him now as an "also ran" is probably premature. Lindsey Graham has been a fixture in Washington for decades. One would think that based on his long record, he would be considered a more serious candidate. Finally there is Carly Fiorina. Ms. Fiorina has a short and poor record in politics. Her only effort was a race against Dianne Feinstein in California, which resulted in a landslide loss. As discussed more fully below, however, she is a very impressive candidate.
One candidate with no chance is former Virginia Governor Jim Gilmore. He has already been cut from the next Republican debate.
Winners
In the winners corner were Bobby Jindal and Carly Fiorina, both of whom should be considered strong Vice Presidential picks should this race be decided before the Republican Convention. Fiorina in particular stood out as someone with the ability to clearly articulate conservative principles. She was firm without sounding shrill. While comparisons to Margret Thatcher are premature, they may not be for long. She has that rare combination of tone, message, and wit needed for a Republican woman to stand up to the inevitable media assault on her as a person.
Fiorina's biggest drawback is her record, or lack thereof. It goes without saying that one unsuccessful Senate run does not a politician make. However, this is an odd election cycle. Voters are rejecting insiders and career politicians in favor of the likes of Donald Trump. It would not be a stretch to imagine Fiorina vaulting to the top and then helping one of the career politicians keep his hold on the base during the general election. It also doesn't hurt that she's a woman.
Bobby Jindal was on the short list for VP in both 2008 and 2012. His record in Louisiana is impressive, although his poll numbers have dropped over the last two years. He was reelected in a landslide in 2011, but his failure to pass his tax reform plan and the partisan battle that took place over that proposal took its toll on him politically. Still, he is articulate, conservative and has a compelling personal story. He spoke so clearly during the debate that I had to remind myself he wasn't the front runner. He demonstrated a command of the issues and the ability to articulate a conservative vision.
Losers
Rick Perry and Lindsey Graham clearly lost the debate. Rick Perry has been a real disappointment as a presidential candidate. Perry has an exceptional record as governor. Texas is a great state and leads the nation in a number of economic categories. Perry has had a lot to do with that. In an informal setting, Perry seems articulate and confident. He moves gracefully from voter to voter sharing his vision for a conservative America. He seems like a regular guy who just wants to do the right thing for the country. Unfortunately, when he gets on a stage, Perry can't find a complete sentence with two hands and a flashlight. Same holds true for any formal interviews. You would think that, after ten years as governor, after being the president of the governor's association and after being a professional politician for most of his adult life, he would be able to speak clearly. But, he got on that stage and just like his aborted run in 2012, he fell completely flat. He looked like a golfer trying to find his swing in the middle of a bad round. When addressing some questions he looked like a deer in the headlights. On others he flailed his arms wildly trying to make his point. On substance he also appeared lost. Some of his answers made no sense at all. He's like the kid who everyone knows is a genius, but just "doesn't test well." It is unfortunate, but I think this ends his political career.
Graham just looked like a ghost, repeating over and over that he wants to take the fight to ISIS, "whatever it takes." As I discussed in my last post, "whatever it takes" is poor policy. Graham is unlikely to find a majority of Americans who will agree with his proposal to re-deploy a massive military force in the middle east to defeat ISIS. To be sure, that day may come, but a campaign focused exclusively on war is not going to be a winner. My guess is that he is not really serious about running for President and instead is looking for a position in the cabinet should the Republicans win.
Neutral
The rest of the field was fairly consistent. Rick Santorum and George Pataki are both experienced campaigners and polished speakers. Santorum has a gift for articulating a Reaganesque blue-color conservative vision for America. His best issue is his passion for the restoration of American manufacturing, which is probably the single most important domestic issue facing this nation. Sadly, Santorum is the only one talking about it. His plan for revitalizing American manufacturing is sound and based on conservative principles. It is an attractive message that will appeal to conservative Democrats and may earn some swing votes in the general election. While he hasn't polled well so far, my money is on Santorum finishing in the top five.
George Pataki has always been an enigma to me. On one hand, you cannot question his competence. He did a fine job in New York, which is a solid blue state. He was a champion of conservative principles but, due in large part to the make up of the legislature, he was forced to compromise one too many times for most of the Republican base. He also didn't do much except help guide the state through 9/11. If he wants to move up in the polls, he will have to do a better job of explaining how his record would translate into a conservative vision for America.
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