Naïveté Will Obliterate The West

It was bound to happen and it did. Al Qaeda was a dramatic departure from the ordinary terrorist group. Al Qaeda chose large targets with the intent of putting on a big show. We were caught off guard in 2001 by their tactics and the sheer scale of the attack because, to that point, terrorism was bombs in trash cans, or a couple of shooters in a bar in Israel. After 9/11, most experts were shocked that the successful high intensity attack was not followed by low level, more traditional attacks. Each Christmas, security experts held their breath, wondering which shopping mall or which school would be the target of a low-intensity attack by Jihadis looking to keep Americans home and, over time, disrupt the American economy. Those attacks never came.

For almost a hundred years, the chosen method of attack by terrorists has been exactly what happened in Paris yesterday. A small group of well organized Jihadis with automatic weapons launched a coordinated attack on soft civilian targets. The reason these attacks are so effective is because they are easy to plan and execute. Coordinating the hijackings and subsequent disaster of 9/11 is a disaster of great proportion, but it is also one of low probability because there are so many moving parts. In contrast, shooting up a school or a nightclub is easy. Psychotic teenagers do it in our country on a regular basis. Gangsters in Chicago do it nearly every week. All you need is a commitment to die and a gun.

The attacks in Paris were predictable and have been predicted for more than a decade. We should be prepared in this country for similar attacks, especially given the porous borders and relatively easy access to firearms. But it is also that easy access to firearms that could be the difference between Paris and a humiliating defeat for the terrorists. Before 9/11, we were all taught to wait for help during a crisis. If there's a hijacking, wait for negotiators and other professionals to save you. If your home is invaded, call the police. If someone tries to kidnap you at gunpoint, just go along. Help will be just around the corner. What we learned from 9/11 is that, sometimes, there is no help. Sometimes, your attacker is so depraved, so determined, that you will die whether you resist or not. In a post 9/11 world, we defend ourselves first, and train our professionals to then follow with extreme determination of their own. 

Terrorism has fundamentally altered our lives, whether we are willing to admit it or not. Each generation faces its generational challenge. For my grandparents, it was World War II and the threat of Nazi Germany. For my parents, it was the Cold War and the threat of nuclear annihilation. For my generation it is this. And no one will save us. We will have to save ourselves.

On the policy front, we must resolve ourselves to fighting Total War. Total war is something I've written about before. http://libertyswindow.blogspot.com/2014/12/our-obsession-with-limited-war-leads-to.html. (Click link to read). It is the difference between defeating Nazi Germany and Imperial Japan in four years, and losing to a group of Jihadis in Iraq in 10, or losing to a bunch of starving Vietnamese in 20. There will be collateral damage and that is very sad. But, at some point, we have to confront the Hobbesian choice between our wives and children, and theirs. That is the same choice my grandparents had to make to defeat the Axis Powers in World War II. Many Japanese died. War is horribly tragic. But if you do not defeat your enemy, they will defeat you.

On the home front, we need to arm ourselves. Admiral Yamamoto famously told the Imperial Counsel that Japan could never "defeat" the United States; that attacking America would "awaken a sleeping giant," and was inadvisable. When asked why he was raining on the war parade, he responded that "there will be a rifle behind every blade of grass." Yamamoto, although his nation was defeated, was one of the greatest strategic minds in history. We should learn from his warning. 

Our greatest asset as a nation is our people. Our enemies see us as soft. They are wrong. Just like Japan did, they conflate our lack of interest with a lack of resolve. We are very slow to anger, but once there, we are merciless. We are armed and we can be trained. Almost every state now allows some form of concealed carry, and there is no shortage of firearms enthusiasts or gun shops that will help you get trained. Paris doesn't happen in a place where three armed terrorists are confronted by fifty armed and trained citizens. Yes, there is risk. Yes, there may be unintended deaths and injuries. But, if we've learned anything from Paris, it is that in that situation, you are already dead.

What will defeat us, however, is naïveté. We simply cannot close our eyes and hope that it won't happen here. It will, and you will know someone who was affected by it. There is no amount of magical thinking that will save us. Terrorism isn't motivated by "offensive internet videos" or our support of Israel. Radical Islam is tyrannical and would exist regardless of our conduct. It is also, like Imperial Japan, made up of fanatics, committed to dying in battle. We have two choices, kill or be killed. It really is that simple and we should be thankful that it is so clear. We can confront it and defeat it, or we can wish it would go away, and be obliterated by it.