There was no way he could win. He was just a clown to them, an entertainer. But, if he ran as a populist third party candidate, the Republican Party was certain he would take enough votes away from their nominee to ensure a Democratic victory. In order to avoid this catastrophe, Reince Priebus, chairman of the party, presented himself to Trump, in Trump Tower, on bended knee, seeking his signature on a "pledge." With his signature, Trump would pledge his support to the Republican Party and support "whoever" the nominee would be. Trump signed.
Priebus was declared a genius by the Party. "What a coup," they gushed. With a signature, the Republican Party guaranteed the two party system and at the same time entitled itself to the massive energy Trump had already generated. "What a clown," they said in private, "he'll never get elected anyway."
Around the same time, Ted Cruz stood on the floor of the Senate and blasted Republican Senate leaders as "liars," "dishonest," and acting contrary to the will of the electorate. The massive Obama budget, including funding for Planned Parenthood, was being shoved through the Congress. There would be no amendments allowed. Cruz, who had just been elected by Tea Party conservatives, had seen enough. His intemperate tirade against the Establishment made him an absolute outcast within the Party. As Senator Lindsay Graham said, if Ted Cruz were "murdered" in the Senate and the trial were held there, there would be no conviction for his murderer. And Trump is the "violent" one...
Now, the clown and the outcast have more than 80% of the delegates between them. Neither is likely to have enough delegates to win the nomination outright before the convention, but should Cruz and Trump team up, they would easily crush any Establishment attempt to steal the nomination from the anti-establishment forces in the Party. Many Republican Elites are taking their medicine like champs and choosing their poison. Graham, not withstanding his desire to murder Ted Cruz, is now raising money for him and will undoubtedly vote for him over Trump. Other Elites, however, are refusing to choose either. They are now engaged in a full throated campaign to convince voters that a "contested convention" is likely, and that it is perfectly acceptable for Trump and Cruz to lose in favor of "someone else," chosen by the delegates. It is pure fantasy and, even if it were not, the Republican Party would simply be signing its own death warrant.
The fantasy is this: Trump doesn't reach 1,237 delegates on the first ballot. Cruz doesn't reach 1,237 on the second ballot. Backroom deals are then made to float a "compromise ticket" with two Establishment Republicans. Presto! The Establishment retains its power and defeats the dark forces of the populist, Tea Party electorate.
It'll never happen. It'll never happen and dreaming about it has done nothing but destroy the eventual nominee's chances in the general election. The only "compromise ticket" we will see come out of the convention is a Trump-Cruz Anti-Establishment ticket. There is exactly zero chance that Trump or Cruz would allow the Party Elite to steal the nomination from both of them. One, maybe, but not both.
Some self-proclaimed anti-establishment conservatives have been enlisted to promote this fantasy. Erik Erickson, who I no longer have any use for, has been all over the news promoting a brokered convention or a potential third party candidate. When asked on Fox News yesterday about Trump's claim that riots would break out if the election were stolen, he quipped something to the effect that there was a contested convention in 1860 which resulted in Abe Lincoln's nomination, "and there were no riots." Anyone with a third grade education and Google knows that Erickson is completely wrong. Abe Lincoln's nomination resulted in the succession of the Southern states and the Civl War followed shortly thereafter.
Even if Erickson were not completely wrong about 1860, his general theory is completely contradicted by the historical record. In 1976, a weak, feckless, Establishment Republican eeked out a victory against the Goldwater conservatives. Gerald Ford won the nomination over Ronald Reagan by only a few delegates in a contested convention. And how did that work out? Ford went on to be annihilated by Jimmy Carter (the second worst President in history), and Reagan had to wait four more years. Reagan, of course, went on to be the most popular Republican President in history. Gerald Ford went on to be a punchline in Saturday Night Live skits and has the dubious distinction of being the only President who was never elected.
In 1912, the Republican Establishment nominated the failed, deeply unpopular incumbent President, Howard Taft, over populist, Theodore Roosevelt. Roosevelt had won 9 out of 10 primary states in landslides, including Taft's home state of Ohio. However, at the convention Party rules thwarted his campaign and Taft was renominated. Worse, many of Taft's delegates had questionable credentials and Roosevelt publicly challenged the results. His objections were ignored, and the Party Elites selected Taft. Taft only won two states in that election. Roosevelt formed the Bull-Moose Party, split the vote, and Woodrow Wilson won the election with less than 42% of the vote.
There are other examples, but suffice it to say, that whenever the Republican Party has refused to listen to the voices of its voters, they have lost in epic fashion. In 2008, the Establishment promoted Mitt Romney as the savior of the Party and attempted to make his nomination into a coronation. Conservatives, who had not forgotten Romneycare, his support for gun control, and his tax increases in Massachusetts, gagged and began looking for "not Romney" candidates. Like the "anyone but Trump" crowd, the "anyone but Romney" wing of the party failed to coalesce around a single candidate and the Establishment spent enormous political capital painting Romney's opponents as unbalanced or unfit. Romney got the nomination and 7 million conservative white voters stayed home. Romney lost the election by 3 million votes.
I am not a Trump "fan." I did not vote for Trump (or Cruz) and I do not agree with those who believe that either man was the best candidate. However, I will enthusiastically support either man for the nomination if there is a brokered convention. That is particularly true of Trump. There is something extraordinarily offensive to me about a group of elites sitting around, mocking a candidate, gaining his loyalty under false pretenses, and then cheating him whenever their own promises become inconvenient. In fact, my feelings mimic the feelings that anti-establishment voters have for the Republican Elite. For years they have mocked their own voters and insulted their intelligence. They nevertheless gain our loyalty under false pretenses, making promises that they intend to abandon as soon as it is politically expedient to do so. Trump is simply the representative of the angry monster the Elites have created. And they will be consumed by that monster if they don't all stand on the Senate floor and slit their own throats first. Who would stop them? Certainly not Ted Cruz...
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