As Establishment heads explode, the race for the White House has tightened. If recent polls are correct, Trump has managed to close a nearly 11 point gap against Clinton in about a week and a half. This may come as a surprise to Democrats, but it's no surprise to Trump supporters. He's constantly beaten highly qualified candidates on whom he trains his sights.
Clinton, by contrast, has proven to be a truly awful candidate. Bernie Sanders just won yet another state yesterday. Clinton, who won every county in West Virginia in 2008 against Obama, managed to alienate just about every voter she could by promising to "put [them] out of work." Donald Trump, granted, says some stupid things, but seriously, "I want to put you out of work"? I can't imagine a more damaging statement. "Build the wall" simply doesn't compare to threats to disenfranchise and unemploy hard working, blue collar Americans. In any event, her comparative weakness as a candidate provides Republicans with exactly the opening they need to sweep the elections, if they play their cards right. As a life long Republican, here is my advice.
Embrace Some Trumpsim
I did not say "embrace all Trumpism." I said "some." Specifically, Trump's jobs message is extremely powerful and has resonated with all Americans, even if he has alienated some others. All Americans can be unified in some very basic things: (1) we love our families and want them safe; (2) we want ourselves, families and neighbors to have good jobs; (3) we want our representatives to be proud to be Americans; and (4) we all want to feel like we're heading in the right direction in our lives.
Trump speaks to all of these common American aspirations. In that way, he is an ironic aspirational candidate. He clearly loves his family, and he speaks often about keeping America safe. He wants to rebuild the military and do whatever it takes to protect Americans from dangerous Jihadis who are, inevitably, flowing across our borders, (hidden in bales of marijuana).
Trump is strong on jobs. He wants everyone to get back to work, in good jobs. Manufacturing jobs, infrastructure jobs, and mining jobs are good jobs. Somehow in America, right around the passage of NAFTA, Republicans and Democrats got together to convince Americans that these forgotten man jobs were somehow too dirty or low for any real American to do. It was a foolish proclamation that has deeply damaged our nation.
These jobs lead directly to production. A producer economy is always stronger than a consumer economy. Making things like coal, steel, automobiles, clothing, or furniture is far more important than making paper wealth through currency manipulation and markets. Building the infrastructure to support these manufacturing jobs is much much more important than shuttering plants and mines. Trump is a builder. He builds "beautiful buildings, and a beautiful business" etc. He promises to rebuild American manufacturing and to exploit American strategic resources. That can only be good. How that is accomplished is up for debate. Trump has his ideas, now it's up to individual Republicans to offer some modifications. But they should embrace his energy and passion on the issue.
Trump is proud to be an American. My wife laughs every time she sees Trump, this billionaire New Yorker, wearing that ridiculous red trucker hat. But it works. He is telling voters in every state that he wants, above all else, to make America great again. Clinton has an effective response, I have to admit. She says that America is great now and she wants to make it better. Her message may resonate with voters, it may not. My guess is, that if she is branded as a liberal coal hater, who still embraces globalism rather than jobs, she will lose. Trump does not believe in globalism. He believes in an America First approach to dealing with every problem from immigration to foreign policy. After decades of Globalthink, perhaps he is correct. Regardless, a majority of the Republican primary voters, and a significant number of cross-over Democrats, agree with him. It is time for the Establishment to get on board with the America First agenda and then find ways to tweak it to make it work.
Finally, we all want to feel like our lives and our country are headed in the right direction. The single most important poll in every election is the so called "right track, wrong track" poll. An historic number of Americans believe the country has been on the wrong track. That is the fault of both parties and Republicans would do better in their own down ballot elections if they took at least some responsibility for that. Trump is the outsider. He has enormous credibility with voters looking for change, including anti-establishment Democrats. He can, and likely will, vouch for individual candidates as "part of the solution" rather than "part of the problem." There have been a large number of Establishment politicians stating that they don't want Trump anywhere near their elections. Maybe they're right, but it is likely that these Establishment incumbents would lose anyway. This is obviously an anti-incumbent year. Look at Bernie Sanders "Berning" Clinton to a crisp with energized, anti-establishment voters. Between Trump, Cruz and Sanders, almost three fourths of Americans have already voted for outsiders who promise to destroy the Washington Establishment. I'd hate to be running as an incumbent from either party this year. I would probably reach out to Trump and ask him for his endorsement, and I would also adopt the popular parts of his message. Candidates who choose to face this electoral hurricane on their own may be able to claim they stood on principle, but they may be claiming that from their next stop in some cushy multinational boardroom, not the Senate.
Name a Cabinet
Embracing some Trumpism will be half the battle when it comes to unifying the party. The next will be his choice of Vice President and cabinet members. Trump has already announced that whoever his Vice Presidential pick will be, it will be an insider with significant political experience. That sounds to me like he will pick an Establishment politician. Hopefully, the party can get behind that person rather than ripping him or her to shreds for supporting Trump. If they don't, well that's on them. Trump can only reach out so much before looking weak with the electorate he has clearly energized.
Stay Away From Politicizing The Supreme Court
Trump made a huge mistake when he said he would provide voters with a list of ten Supreme Court nominees. This has never been done before and for good reason. The Court is obviously political and has become even more so in recent years. Judges write hundreds, sometimes thousands of decisions in a career. This may offend some of my judge friends, but guess what? Some of them aren't great decisions. Judicial nominees are very easy to attack. Everything is in writing and, in our legal system, often times the law is unpopular. Rulings force a judge to pick one party over the other. Someone always loses and sometimes that person can be a rallying point for politicians.
Naming ten Court picks gives the opposition ten more highly vulnerable candidates to run against. Judges are not elected to the Supreme Court, so subjecting them to the electoral process necessarily defeats the Framer's intent. They will be inundated with press and opposition researchers. They will be hounded in their homes and security will be difficult to provide. They will be held up to scorn and, ultimately, a number of them may not want to be considered or may drop out of consideration. It's just a bad idea and the Establishment should not push it either.
Don't be Afraid to Attack Clinton
Establishment Republicrats have been shocked by Trump's "attacks on women." Trump needs to avoid saying stupid things about women, but he does not need to "moderate his tone." The fact is, women are not infants. They don't need to be mansplained to or protected from the harsh realities of the world. Trump doesn't mansplain. He literally treats women like he does men, and Republican candidates can learn from that. There is a phrase for it that I won't repeat, but basically, he is an equal opportunity harsh tone user.
Hillary Clinton wants to be President of the United States. In my view, she's already demonstrated that she's not up to the task by her time as Secretary of State, when every conceivable global rival mowed her down like a weed. She clearly didn't have the stomach to save Americans in Benghazi, or stand up to Putin in Eastern Europe. Now she wants to extend her reach to the Presidency.
Clinton's record is fair game and no one should put on silk gloves to attack her on her decisions. The Obama Administration, with her support, has placed women in combat, in special forces training, and on the front lines. If she was serious about those decisions, then she can stand with them and fight bare knuckles. Yes, even against a man. Republican men should have enough respect for women in general and Clinton in particular to go after her like they would a man.
Resist the Urge to Campaign on Reproductive Politics
The conventional wisdom is that Trump has a "woman problem." As I've said before, I think married women will likely vote for their husbands in this election, somewhat blunting the impact of Trump's rhetoric. The Establishment's constant gloating about Trump's unpopularity with women, however, is the most hypocritical development so far in this cycle. The Republican Party has done terrible with women, and individual candidates who make stupid statements about reproductive politics are to blame. Every candidate who discusses "legitimate rape," or refuses to consider any exceptions to abortion bans, further erodes what modest support the party has. For his part, Trump doesn't have this problem. He doesn't discuss "legitimate rape," and he wants to change the Republican Platform to recognize, as the Catholic Church does, exceptions for the life of the mother. In fact, the entirety of Trump's woman problem rests in his willingness to attack women personally like he does men.
The Party needs to avoid making this election about abortion, birth control, Planned Parenthood, or anything else that involves a discussion about women's sexual health or sexual activities. None of those things has ever helped a single Republican win the womens' vote. If asked, candidates need to be measured in their opposition to abortion and recognize that the vast majority of abortions are not carried out by women who have some murderous desire to kill a baby. The nation is deeply divided on this issue and demonizing women who you are trying to persuade to change their position is unproductive. Unfortunately, Republicans, especially Republican men, have sometimes had a real problem articulating the pro-life message in a way that is not considered universally offensive. It's better just left unsaid for now.
Conclusion
In the final analysis, Republicans should take a page out of the old Bill Clinton playbook. "It's the economy, stupid." Two decades later, his wife has completely abandoned that message, instead promising to put people out of work to pursue some bizarre liberal ideology. Trump, by contrast, has a clear jobs message. Embracing that message, promising to curtail globalism, and staying away from unnecessary political debates will carry them to victory on a new wave of populist voters.
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