Several things have become clear in recent days. First, if there was ever any doubt that Putin is willing to invade Ukraine, those doubts can be put to rest. He has doubled his invasion force, at great expense. Most military analysts agree that he has sufficient force to invade and occupy Eastern Ukraine, but not take and hold Kiev. We will see...
It also has become clear that Putin is not going to be deterred from pursuing his original strategic objective, which is to have direct influence over Ukraine's political and foreign policy decisions. Allowing the West to have more influence over Ukraine than he does is unacceptable. He fears, rightfully so, that the West will eventually place weapons in Ukraine that could further marginalize Russia's military power in the region. He will never let this happen, and all of his decisions are in support of that principle.
My recommendation can be found here. http://libertyswindow.blogspot.com/2014/07/defending-putins-gambit.html. Unfortunately, there is no support for placing our own forces in Eastern Europe and it is quickly becoming too late anyway. Where the American Right is accused of relying too heavily on military force, the American Left relies too heavily on sanctions and marshaling world opinion against bad actors. The latter will have no effect on Putin. The world has already frowned on his forces shooting down a passenger airliner. He has responded by doubling his invasion force. The former, sanctions, have so far proved ineffective, but that does not have to be the case.
If Putin invades Ukraine, the ultimate objective should be to frustrate his operation and degrade his ability to continue to occupy Eastern Ukraine and Crimea. That means using indirect military force to aid guerrillas in Ukraine. It also mean attacking Russia's economy.
There is no question that we can provide arms to Ukraine. We don't have to hide it, either. In fact, it is probably better for Putin to see that we are visibly engaged in frustrating his ability to reach his objective. Guns, anti-tank and anti-aircraft weapons can be operated by guerrillas with minimal training. Body armor, helmets, grenades and ammunition are also cheap and easy to distribute. While there is no doubt that Putin can successfully invade, occupation is an entirely different mission. Even a sympathetic population will tire of having their movements restricted, being confined to their homes, and being subjected to summary justice. It only takes a few missteps by the occupying forces to turn complacency into rage. An angry, well armed population exacts a much higher price on the occupiers.
In addition to arming a resistance, we can also attack Russia's economy. Russia is a petro-state. Its economy is based on oil and gas. As I said in my last article on this topic, we can leverage our relationship with China to at least delay its oil and gas deal with Russia. We can also use what little influence we have left in the Middle East to cut Russia's access to foreign oil markets. The more civilized arab states already dislike having Russia as a competitor in the market. It is possible that they would agree to help us ruin Russia's ability to bring oil to the market.
That same strategy would work in Europe, although it would be very painful to the Europeans. However, I simply cannot see Europeans justifying their purchase of blood oil from Russia after it invades Ukraine. The more brutal the resistance, the more difficult it will be to rationalize European financial support for Russian brutality. The day will come when Europe will have to take sides - sooner or later. We should convince them that the sooner the West ends Russia's ability to financially continue military operations, the sooner the energy pinch will be over.
We can also cut Russia's access to financial markets and banks. Russia is not unlike any other country in that it relies on public funding, loans and interest on savings to operate its government. Most of Russia's funding comes from overseas. Cutting access to funding cuts Putin's access to money needed to fund his war machine and his occupation. Eastern Ukraine and Crimea are the poorest regions of Eastern Europe. Putin will already have a headache trying to bring any measurable improvement to the people in those regions, regardless of the fact that they speak Russian. Without access to foreign markets and public funding, he will fail.
If we can financially isolate Russia and then support a brutal and bloody resistance in Eastern Ukraine, Putin will have to eventually reevaluate his objectives. If he is bogged down in a fierce fight in Ukraine, he also won't have the money or the reserves to harass the rest of Eastern Europe. In the mean time, we can be placing significant military assets in Poland, Estonia and Lithuania, who would welcome the protection.
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