Defending Putin's Gambit

In my last post on the topic (http://libertyswindow.blogspot.com/2014/07/putins-game.html) I suggested that Putin's strategy is to control the middle of the board (Europe and the former Soviet states) from the wings, using mostly indirect action. In order to guarantee his strategic objective, Putin has positioned significant regular military assets in Belgorod, Kursk, and Rostov. The bulk of  his navy is even further south in the Black Sea. At present, Putin is using direct and indirect military force to disrupt Ukraine's political and military calculations and to destabilize the population. He is also probing NATO and the West to see what, if any, response we will have to his aggression. We can expect that Putin will continue to ratchet up the tensions a little at a time until he gets the sense that his next action will lead to an undesirable war. Keep in mind, however, not all war is undesirable to Putin. In his mind, a winnable war to secure several important strategic objectives may be worth fighting.

Ultimately, the continued threat of invasion will have a poisonous effect on the stability of the political structure in Ukraine. We've already seen fist fights in parliament and resignations from top pro-western politicians. It is very likely that, at some point, the instability will make the government unmanageable and lead to real civil war. That will be Putin's excuse to "intervene," put an end to hostilities, oppress anti-Russian sentiments, install a puppet government, and proceed to sack the country's resources. He is controlling the center from the wings, depriving the West from ultimately having any influence in Ukraine or the rest of Eastern Europe. If we let Ukraine fall, it is only a matter of time before Latvia, Estonia, Belarus, Lithuania, Romania, Bulgaria and Georgia also fall - either as the result of direct intervention, or simply as a matter of collaboration out of fear of invasion. The post Cold-War Eastern European experiment with democracy will be over. Putin will be a national and international hero for putting a punctuation mark on the decay of the West, and the end of Pax Americana will be upon us.

Or we can stop him now.

The defensive strategy is reasonably simple, even if the implementation is not: (1) Flank or surround his objectives with decisive military force; cut off his ability to move irregular troops into any country; (2) reemphasize the development of our own strategic natural resources; and (3) use our comparative wealth to frustrate his plans to expand his influence in Asia and South America and aggressively go after the Russian economy.

Redeploy our Military.

Putin has left himself vulnerable across Russia's enormous western border. Ukraine is literally surrounded by EU members, like Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania. Moreover, Poland has already started to rearm and strengthen its defenses without any help from the EU. Poland has invited the U.S. to place military assets in the country and is vociferously committed to repelling any Russian attack. It is likely that the rest of the former Soviet states would do the same given the resources and assurances from a Superpower. If Putin wants to move the chess pieces that's fine; we can move chess pieces too. If we do not move, however, we will become out flanked and Putin will win.

As much as it pains a war-weary country to hear, we need to offer to place troops, tanks, planes, anti-aircraft weaponry and other materiel in Eastern Europe. And we should not deploy just any soldiers, we need to make a point. We need to deploy our most battle-hardened units to send the message that, if there is a fight, it will be a brutal one. Battle hardened soldiers can also work closely with the militaries of those countries to train and equip their own soldiers. Putin doesn't need to know whether we will actually intervene in Ukraine. He simply needs to know that we could intervene, decisively, if we choose to. It would also have the added benefit of making it much more difficult for a unit of Russian special forces dressed as members of a motorcycle gang to enter the country to stir up trouble. Putin will be limited to using direct force, which requires much more political resolve. 

Hitler should have been stopped at Munich. Putin is no less of a threat and, because of Russia's enormous nuclear arsenal, he is actually a much greater threat. Preparing to fight makes it far less likely that one will ever have to. Committing troops early and in decisive numbers may well ensure that Russia remains marginalized and contained.

Become Energy Independent and Rebuild our Manufacturing Base.

Putin's strength is the economic hold he has over Western Europe, controlling a third of its gas and oil. While it would be fantastic if Europe would suddenly decide to jettison two decades of green energy policy, that is not likely to happen. Nor is it likely that the U.S. will be able to provide the energy that Europe needs. It is just not logistically possible. That notwithstanding, the U.S. can ensure that it is energy independent. We have access to a bounty of natural resources that, if exploited, can guarantee our ability to fuel our economy for decades, or at least until something better comes along. This means oil, gas, and nuclear power.

It is also time to have a serious discussion about the wisdom of allowing most of our manufacturing to be done overseas. Manufacturing jobs are good jobs. They pay well, tend to have good benefits, and there is reasonable job security. There are many problems in this country that have led companies to choose foreign manufacturing over domestic. Wages are higher here, it is difficult and expensive to fire bad employees; and our tax laws are out of date. The woes of American manufacturing are legion, and cannot be addressed in a paragraph. Suffice it to say that a strong, stable country is the country that is actually able to make the things it uses. We are only a Superpower so long as our economy is strong. A broad manufacturing base is absolutely indispensable to a strong economy.

Compete With Russia for Influence While We Can Still Win.

Russia reached an energy deal with China that will provide Putin's regime with billions of dollars over the next decade. China manufactures most of the country's goods. We are their largest buyer and, without us, there is no booming Chinese economy. China should be told, directly, that we do not appreciate them doing business with Russia so long as Russia is a global menace and that there will be consequences if they continue to support Putin's war. China can then be rewarded for compliance with additional trade that far exceeds the value of the deal with Russia. That is just one example. On a global level, for every offer Putin makes, the U.S. can make a better offer. Within short order, Russia's influence will be reduced or eliminated, along with their economic growth.

In the final analysis, Putin can be stopped if we have the will to stop him. What concerns me is the possibility that, like the world did with Hitler, we will delay action for so long that we will have given him the time he needs to build his military and become a force even more difficult to defeat. It is inconvenient and expensive to have to contain yet another aggressive country. I understand and, like most Americans, I wish it were not necessary. History dictates, however, that the price we will pay is much, much higher if we do not intervene now, while the weed is still just a bud.