Now that we have actually gone to war in the Middle East, our leaders and pundits are finally considering the concerns many of us raised months ago. For example, you can read (or re-read) my own deep, longstanding misgivings about waging another war in the Middle East.
While I do not claim to have a monopoly on right answers, you could say that I've at least been keeping up...
We should all be deeply concerned about this new conflict. Already, we are seeing signs of mission creep. Remember, there were not going to be any "boots on the ground." Now, even the President's Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff is saying that we cannot ultimately defeat ISIS without American boots on the ground. Likewise, you cannot find a political commentator who believes that we have a coherent strategy for "ultimately defeating" ISIS. The same commentators who were in lockstep in the march to war, all beating the same drum, now have "concerns" that "maybe" we will fail - incidentally, for all the same reasons many ordinary Americans identified months ago. (See above).
I find that unacceptable. We are at war and, like it or not, we will have American soldiers fighting that war, on the ground, for a decade. I promise you. The only time both our political parties can get together on anything is to commit folly. This war will be case in point, and it is time for a reality check. Let me just summarize:
1. We will not win using airpower alone. They will run away and hide, wait us out, and then reemerge when we stop the bombing.
2. Middle Eastern boots on the ground will add to the chaos and not actually stop the violence. This is a sectarian war. While today we can support the non-ISIS sect, tomorrow we will be appalled by their extermination of other sects. Iraqis have proven once that they do not want to fight ISIS, and they will prove it again.
3. This will not be cheap. It will cost us another trillion or so to wage another decade of war.
4. This will not stop terrorism. While we are busy fighting ISIS, there is no shortage of Islamic extremists that want to blow us up. Even if we defeat ISIS, there will continue to be a significant threat.
5. We will tire or bore of fighting because our leaders will drag this out for as long as possible. We won World War II in four years. We can't defeat a bunch of savages in the Middle East in ten. We lack the will as a nation to exterminate the enemy, either because we don't really view them as an existential threat, or we have lost the stomach for violence. Something tells me it's the former. Why should ISIS be any different...
6. If we win, we will have aided Iran, who incidentally wants to nuke Israel while chanting "Death to America." We will eventually have to go to war with them too.
7. There still will not be democracy in the Middle East. We can just give up that fantasy. Democracy is dependent on the dogmatic preservation of individual rights. That is not a native concept in the Middle East and never will be unless we spend 50 years occupying the region and guaranteeing those rights through the use of military force.
8. We will lose soldiers. This last point cannot be overstated. We will have soldiers killed, captured and beheaded, tortured, and humiliated on international television. This will not be a bloodless war. We better be prepared to deal with the consequences when, inevitably, our Congress uniformly agrees that we need American "boots on the ground."
Lest anyone be confused, I am not against war, especially in the defense of women and children who are being crucified by a bunch of savages in the desert. I am, however, against poorly conceived, poorly planned, and poorly executed wars. This has all the markings of such an engagement. Our leadership is late to the party and has hastily crafted a limited and preliminary plan to fight to a stalemate. Generally, haste, significant limitations, and stalemates are not good in war...
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