The Greater of two Evils, The Gathering Storm, Perpetual War, and The Folly of Western Thinking

In his six volume masterpiece, The Second World War, Winston Churchill chronicled British, French and American efforts to contain and then later fight Nazi Germany. In his first volume, The Gathering Storm, the former Prime Minister provides a meticulous analysis of the various misconceptions held by the Allied nations, which emboldened Hitler and eventually made war inevitable. It is not a quick read.

In it Churchill wrote:

"Delight in smooth sounding platitudes, refusal to face unpleasant facts ... genuine love of peace and pathetic belief that love can be its sole foundation ... the utter devotion of the Liberals to sentiment apart from reality ... though free from wickedness or evil design, played a definite part in the unleashing upon the world of horrors and miseries [of World War II.]” 

Churchill himself gave a prescient speech in November of 1934 condemning the world to industrial-scale war if the government continued to ignore the emerging threat from Nazi Germany.  He was nearly thrown out as a "war monger." The threat was ignored. When Hitler began carving off pieces of Europe in 1936, Churchill's invective became pitched, and even fewer Britons were persuaded. The general consensus was that Hitler was asserting influence "in his own backyard," and it simply wasn't worth a war to stop him. We all know how that ended.

The news around the world has become even more bleak in the last two weeks. Russia has now launched full scale military operations in the Ukraine, albeit with Russian soldiers who are out of uniform. While Western leaders fumble over which sanctions to consider next, Putin is invading and, in one weekend, has driven the Ukrainian military out of the east. The new Ukrainian President has all but surrendered, urging his countrymen to "remain calm" in the face of the invasion, as he sues for peace. Their military is in full retreat, now sure that no help is ever going to come.

And it isn't even leading the news. It isn't even the fourth story on the news today.

Instead, we are focused on ISIS. The retired generals are out again, polishing their stars on national television, pressing for a third invasion of Iraq. Because the first two went so well. One particularly  giddy Fox News military analyst actually cracked a smile this morning as he said that this "engagement...if we really want to stop ISIS," could last a decade or more. Think about that for a minute. A decade. That is what the hawks and military industrial complex are selling to us. Another decade of war in Iraq. By the time that decade ends, we will have been at war with Iraq for thirty years. Perhaps we should have stayed the first time, instead of waging this mad perpetual war for the souls of people who do not want to be converted to Jeffersonian democracy.

The irony here is that if we continue to ignore Russian expansionism, the hawks will get all the war they could ever want. You see, Western warfare is waged on an entirely different level than it is by a bunch of Jihadis living in the stone age. Western warfare is waged with the sustained use of massive weapons that inflict massive casualties. Western warfare is fought with columns of tanks, attack helicopters, strategic bombers, and millions of soldiers. Western warfare is fought with nuclear warheads, EMP equipped satellites, and other "secret" or experimental strategic weapons that leave tens of millions of people homeless and starving. Western warfare is the greater of the two evils, and it cannot be ignored.

War waged on a modern, industrial scale has historically been a slaughter in which one side must be forced to unconditionally surrender. There is no paternalistic "winning of the hearts and minds," or "allowing Iraqis to exercise their sovereignty." There is victory or there is death. Just as ISIS shocks the West with its unparalleled brutality towards women and children, the West has historically shocked the world with the unparalleled scope and size of industrialized warfare. And we are at risk once again. As Albert Einstein once mused, “I know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones.”

Americans should not be fooled into thinking that it cannot happen again. It is fair to say that Mr. Churchill would disagree with the politicians who believe Putin is simply "playing in his own backyard." Churchill would caution the allied nations not to "delight in smooth sounding platitudes" or refuse to "face unpleasant facts." Mr. Churchill would remind us that the "malice of the wicked [is] reinforced by the weakness of the virtuous." In the West, we love peace so much that we recoil at anyone who says that peace is not always lasting. It is the folly of Western thinking. We live in denial, ignoring the storm clouds, pretending the words matter more than the actions, secretly reassured by our enemies' willingness to soothe our fears... 

Until the wolf is at the door, looking for his dinner.