Election day is approaching. The attack ads are filling the airwaves in every state. We are all being urged to go stand in long lines to exercise our Constitutional right to vote. It appears that the Republicans will take the Senate, but not by a huge margin. Republican candidates seem to be struggling in places like Georgia, where Democrats haven't been competitive in a state-wide race in almost 20 years. In the post election analysis, if the Republicans again underperform, it will almost certainly be because the party has not articulated any national or even regional agenda of any kind. "Not Obama" is every candidate's election strategy. So, one must ask the question; "what will change if the Republicans win"? The answer should be obvious - not much.
1. Obamacare will not be repealed.
The Republicans will not gain enough seats in the Senate to override a Presidential veto. As a result, Republicans can do anything they want to try to repeal the Affordable Care Act, but it will be vetoed. They would have to be committed to shutting down the government, again, to cut funding to the law which, as we already know from past efforts, is not an effective weapon. Most Republicans are not even campaigning on the issue. For better or for worse, the ACA is here to stay.
2. The border will remain porous.
Among the many very scary problems we face is the wide open southern border. Every threat we face is made exponentially worse by the prospect of that border being used by our enemies to hurt our nation. Beyond the mere administrative and economic damage caused by the open border, we cannot rule out the possibility, or even the probability, that someone with Ebola or Smallpox or chemical weapons will hide themselves in a bale of marijuana, gain entry, and attack us. Republicans in the Senate will not control the border. "Comprehensive immigration reform"will not be passed because President Obama has demonstrated a complete unwillingness to work with the opposition on this issue. As a result, nothing will change, and we will still be at risk.
3. We will still be at war with ISIS.
There is no support in the Republican party for a withdrawal from the war against ISIS or for expanding the war in such a way as to guarantee success. Even if there were, President Obama is not changing his strategy, and he is the Commander in Chief. We will continue to flounder in the Middle East, making the same strategic mistakes we've made for 20 years now. ISIS will continue to march and continue be a destabilizing threat.
4. Taxes will remain high.
Republicans always run on the issue of tax reform, but they rarely actually act to reform the tax code. Even if there were support to make the types of changes to the tax code that are necessary to have a meaningful impact on our economy, the President will still veto the bill.
5. The economy will continue to stagnate.
This country needs manufacturing jobs. Manufacturing jobs are good jobs, high-paying, and generally stable. Manufacturing is the key to production and production is the key to a strong economy. Part time jobs in the service industry cannot replace the manufacturing jobs that moved to Mexico and China. In order to get those jobs back, our government is going to have to lower taxes, reform labor and employment laws, and incentivize companies to move to or remain in the United States. None of these things is going to happen after this election. President Obama is committed to organized labor and committed to keeping taxes high. These are idealogical firewalls for him and the many Democrats who will remain in Congress. As a result, our economy will continue to grow at a snail's pace well into the future.
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