Although it was not covered by any major network, President Obama last night announced that he would issue an executive order on immigration. This was a widely expected move that has Republicans outraged and Democrats running scared. The long of the short of it is this: It is unremarkable and will do more harm than good to the Democratic party.
I know most of my Republican friends will disagree, but on the substance, he really isn't doing anything remarkable. Tens of millions of immigrants already live in this country illegally. He is right, they are not going anywhere. There is absolutely zero public support for any kind of campaign of mass deportation. As a result, and all sympathies aside, these people are, in fact, here to stay. We're just going to have to get over that. More importantly, we don't know where they are, they already use our social support network, and they do not pay taxes. While most of them have jobs, which is the primary reason they come here, we never see a dime of tax money to offset the resources they use. Finally, nearly 60% of Americans already favor "a path to citizenship." President Obama is offering something far less. The President's plan does nothing more than stop deportations and leaves it to subsequent presidents to undo what he has done if they so choose. In essence, no one is becoming legalized but they are being allowed to stay, which they are de facto doing anyway, and most Americans do not oppose.
Once again, however, President Obama has executed his plan in the clumsiest of ways. He has a new Congress and he has picked a fight that ultimately "poisons the well," as well as alienates members of his own party. He probably thinks he is being clever. He thinks he is going to bait the Republicans into shutting down the government, or impeachment, or some other such unpopular move. He is trying to divide his opponents with this issue after getting clobbered in the last election. Unfortunately for President Obama, the Republicans can and will badly outflank him with this issue.
First, it' s actually a wedge issue for his party, not the GOP. He has miscalculated. Mary Landrieu, for example, fighting for her Democratic Senate seat in a runoff election in Louisiana, is now doomed. Not only did her party refuse to pass authorization for the Keystone Pipeline, but even if they had, President Obama vowed to veto it. Then, two days later, the President announces a move on immigration that has virtually no support in her state. She's done, and the Democrats now lose another incumbent Senator. Moreover, whatever conservative Democrats are left will see the proverbial writing on the wall and either switch parties (like in 1994), or lose their next elections. A number of moderate Democrats came out against the President's plan before he even gave his speech. That will not change.
The President's action is self-defeating in another important way, however. If it was his political calculation that the long term health of the party requires an influx of new immigrant voters, he has failed in every possible way. For one, his own plan does not provide them with citizenship, which is required to vote. He just won the hearts and minds of a group of non-voters at the expense of a huge number of swing voters. That's just not smart politics. More importantly however, by acting unilaterally, President Obama took all of the pressure off conservative Republicans to vote on a compromise bill. Instead, the Republicans (if they're smart) will just let the President's executive order stand and pass a series of tough border bills that essentially end cross-border migration for generations. Since upwards of 85% of Americans favor "closing the border," the President and his party risk utter annihilation if he chooses to use the veto. Because President Obama acted unilaterally and without Congressional approval, it is assumed that he got exactly what he wanted when he did so. Now the Republicans can take him to task on the border without regard to the other more controversial issues surrounding immigration reform.
In the final analysis, there was very little benefit to the President or his party by acting unilaterally on immigration reform. To the contrary, he has marginalized moderate members of his own party and, like with his other "achievements," he has handed the opposition yet another tool to clobber him with. He could have waited. He could have forced Republicans into a debate about dividing families and children. He could've used the issue in the new Congress to make Republicans look unsympathetic to to the plight of immigrants in a nation of immigrants. Instead, he did exactly what he wanted to do on the issue, and it wasn't that much.
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