Europe Strikes Out In Ukraine

Shortly after President Obama declared in his State of the Union Address that Putin had been effectively contained, Russia launched a new, barely covert, offensive in Eastern Ukraine. As Vice President Biden observed last week, Putin's "little green men" have again been working to assault and destabilize the region. Russia is motivated to renew its efforts in the region because of low oil prices. Russia is a petro-state, and its economy has been struggling since oil dropped below $100 a barrel. Renewed aggression in Ukraine was predictable. Ukraine is a very important part of the Russian economy and Russia cannot thrive without it. While it is true that Eastern Ukraine is poor, Putin can still use the east as leverage in trade negotiations with the west.

That assumes Putin intends to stop in Eastern Ukraine.

Russia will dominate Eastern Ukraine for generations. That is a done deal now. Just as the Ukrainian government was developing plans to push the "separatists" out of the east, Europe intervened on Russia's behalf, proposing a "demilitarized zone" along the battle front. "Demilitarized zones" have had a unique place in history. They are often employed to stop conflicts that have reached a stalemate. Each side agrees to pull back 50 miles or so, the front lines are then flooded with land mines, barbed wire, and targeted with artillery. Demilitarized zones remain for generations and prevent the migration of people back and forth. The country is then divided by region and thereafter referred to as "North Korea," "South Vietnam," or "Eastern Ukraine." 

This is exactly the result Putin was pursuing when he first invaded. He used covert military assets to destabilize the region and take control of the major cities and infrastructure. He then "called for elections," controlled the elections through force, and used the result as a mandate for continued interference. He massed a large military presence on the border to deter interference from Europe and the United States, rattled his saber, and the world surrendered. 

Among the many ironies is the fact that German Chancellor, Angela Merkel, is the loudest supporter of the demilitarized zone strategy. Germans should be particularly sensitive to the idea of any nation being divided between East and West because of Russian expansionism. The French, also proponents of the plan, should be particularly sensitive to calls for appeasement and partition. And the British just seem lost. Their schizophrenic approach to Putin, condemning him on the one hand but refusing to take any significant steps to stop him on the other, just makes them look weak.

This is Europe's third strike and now the game is over. When Russia massed troops on the border of Crimea, they did nothing. When Russia annexed Crimea, they did nothing. When Russia massed troops on the border of Ukraine, they did nothing. When Russia invaded with irregular troops, they did nothing. Now they want to "end the bloodshed" by giving Putin exactly what he wants - a clear border between East and West with a bunch of land mines in-between a "buffer zone." Eastern Ukraine now belongs to Putin, and he is not going to give it back.