Why Cease-fires Fail

Just days after a European brokered cease-fire went into effect, Ukrainian and Russian forces fought a major battle over two railroad depots in Eastern Ukraine. The rail lines have significant strategic importance because they connect the two Russian-backed separatist strongholds in the region. For Ukraine, it was an utter defeat. It appears from early reports that more than 100 Ukrainian soldiers were killed and 300 were taken prisoner. Russian separatists captured the prize.

It has almost always been the case that cease-fires, brokered by non-combatants in distant capitals, fail. They fail because the struggle is never shared to the same degree by the would be peacemakers. Peace is rarely achieved before the warring parties have exhausted themselves in the struggle. Whether it's Eastern Ukraine, Iraq, the Balkans, or Vietnam, peace only lasts so long as someone is willing to enforce that peace through the threat of force. As soon as that threat is removed, the factions resume fighting.

It is human nature. People will fight for their land. They will fight for their way of life, their communities and their families. Many of the same people who would object to fighting someone else's war in some distant land have no compunction about picking up a rifle to defend their own neighborhoods. And any leader who tells them to put down their weapons will have their orders disregarded. That is especially true if that leader is from another country, like say, Germany. Leaders who prevent their people from effectively defending their homes, whether it be from civil war, foreign invasion, forest fire, or intruder, quickly find themselves out of power.

This is what is happening in Ukraine. Leaders from Germany and France pushed a cease-fire that included a "demilitarized zone," effectively carving out a part of the East for Russia. The Ukrainian people, especially those fighting on the front lines, were not fooled and do not believe that their country should be carved up. Even those who may be willing to concede their friend's neighborhood in exchange for peace are not so foolish as to believe that their own neighborhoods are then safe. So the fighting continues because, after all, there are some things worth fighting for.

Lasting peace will only be achieved in Ukraine when the world convinces Russia that it will not be allowed to keep the prize. As it stands now, Russia has carved off pieces of Georgia and Ukraine, and has annexed Crimea with nary a whimper from the rest of the world. It is understandable that they believe they will be allowed to keep their gains. So far no one has challenged them. Until that happens, Russian will continue. In fact, Russia will continue until they seize something the world is not willing to give up, like Poland. Then we will be in another massive European war that will make the 20 years we spent in Iraq look like toddlers playing in a sandbox.