Putin's Gambit, Revisited

This was predictable. In fact, I predicted it, and I'm neither an expert, nor alone. (http://libertyswindow.blogspot.com/2014/07/putins-game.html). 

Today, Vladimir Putin's Russia commenced airstrikes against both anti-Assad and ISIS forces in Syria. Shortly before the airstrikes began this morning, a three star Russian general appeared at the U.S. Embassy in Iraq and demanded to speak to the military attache deployed there. In what was apparently a heated exchange, the Russian general hand delivered a verbal order from Putin. U.S. forces are to cease Syrian operations. 

Apparently, the Obama Administration had no idea this had happened or that it was coming, notwithstanding the fact that Putin met with Obama in person two days ago. AP reporters on the ground in the Middle East had to awaken U.S. officials and alert them to the development. The Administration once again proved that it is asleep at the switch, literally.

Putin intends to keep Assad in power, as he no doubt promised to do when the two met early last year. He also has substantial regional support from Assad's allies. Shortly after Obama inked the Iran nuclear deal, Iran's top general traveled to Russia and met with Putin. It has only been four weeks, and in that time, Russia, Iran, Syria, and Shiite Iraq have formed a military alliance. Russia has now deployed attack aircraft, surface to air missiles, helicopters, tanks, armored vehicles, and about a thousand troops to Syria. If - and this is a big if - Putin is successful in defeating ISIS in Syria, he will have established a stronger foothold in the Middle East than we have.

Today also marks the first time since the 1970's that Russia has had a military deployment to the region. There is no doubt at this point that the United States needs to reinforce its weak position in the Middle East. We should have a large deterrent force in place in friendly countries, and we should redeploy to Iraq. Putin cannot be allowed to determine the fate of the region. We would almost certainly be on the losing end, as would our allies, and Israel in particular.

Nothing is certain, however. Not even for the great Vladimir Putin. Russia has now stepped into one of the worst quagmires in human history. The United States, a comparatively rich country, has spent decades and trillions of dollars trying to influence and control these countries. After near total failure, we decided as a nation to withdraw. We elected a President who did exactly that, damned be the consequences. Now it's Russia's turn. While I have no doubt that Putin will wage a much more direct and brutal war against the enemy, it will now be his nation spending the money, attracting the enemy's attention, and losing the soldiers. It seems unlikely to me that he will be any more successful than we were, but he has even fewer resources at his disposal. 

Russia's economy is about the size of Texas's. Russia's military, while huge, is poorly maintained. It possesses very advanced aircraft, but only about half are operational at any given moment. Most of its hardware is left over from the Cold War. More importantly, however, Russia is already overextended. It invaded Crimea and Ukraine. Both engagements were successful for Putin, but this invasion is qualitatively different.

Crimea and Ukraine border Russia. Syria does not. A significant portion of Crimeans and Ukrainians wanted to be part of Russia, and Russia has historically occupied both countries. By contrast, the Syrians already hate Assad and are unlikely to find Russian occupation any more palatable. In fact, Assad is neither a Sunni nor a Shia. He is an Alawite, which is itself a minority of the Syrian population. Choosing an unpopular dictator as an ally to establish your foothold in the Middle East invites defeat. That, combined with the remarkable tenacity of the opposition, will involve Russia in a much larger war than it is expecting. This is a concept with which Americans are all too familiar after decades of fighting Hussein, his army's remnants and then al Qaeda in Iraq. IEDs, roadside bombs, snipers, and extreme brutality await Russia and its soldiers.

And, to be clear, Russia will have to deploy ground forces. An airpower only strategy will no better work for Putin than it has for us. If Putin is serious about securing Syria, his nation will have to endure the same above-mentioned guerrilla tactics that we did. The Middle East cannot be won otherwise.

For better or for worse, the United States has been the dominant foreign influence in the Middle East since World War II. That has made us a target, it has cost us lives and money, but it has also ensured access to the world's most important strategic asset - oil. Until we do find a viable alternative, we have no choice but to continue protect our interest in an uninterrupted supply.