Putin's Game

As a follow up to my last article. If you have not read it already, you can view it here: http://libertyswindow.blogspot.com/2014/07/as-lusitania-sinks-world-yawns.html. 

In chess, the Reti Opening is considered a quiet play for ultimate position. The objective is to control the center of the board from the wings, using position plays to deny the opponent open space.

Vladimir Putin is a master strategist and tactician. We can ignore it, we can mock him with photoshopped pictures of him hunting polar bears, but he has already humiliated Western leaders in the geopolitical chess game. We underestimate him at our own peril. While the West was bogged down in Iraq, suffering from a recession, and generally turning our attention inward, Putin was quietly but steadily gathering strategic resources and laying the groundwork for future alliances. Russia now owns or controls more than a third of Europe's gas and oil supply. He controls almost all of Ukraine's. 

When Syrian dictator, Bashar al-Assad used chemical weapons against rebels who were winning the civil war, Russia stepped in to broker a deal to disarm him. In doing so, Russia almost certainly guaranteed to protect his rule. It then successfully seized the weapons, and Putin looked like a true world statesman. Assad now owes Putin. 

He then turned his attention to Iran. As negotaitions over Iran's nuclear program ground to a halt, Russia again stepped in to broker a "deal." The terms of the deal are still being negotiated, but Russia has agreed to build Iran three new nuclear power plants. Putin will be giving Iran nuclear technology that could be used to develop nuclear weaponry. Iran will never need nuclear weapons, however. Putin can guarantee Iranian hegemony in the Middle East for decades to come and prevent Israel from striking Iran's nuclear facilities. Killing a bunch of Iranians working on a nuclear power plant is fundamentally different from killing a bunch of Russian advisors working on their own power plant. Iran now owes Putin.

Then, something unexpected happened that caused Putin to accelerate his timetable. Ukraine overthrew his man in Kiev. While unexpected, Putin obviously had already developed plans for such a contingency. This should not surprise anyone. As had been famously said, without Crimea, there is no Russia. Crimea is the industrial region within which the bulk of Russian manufacturing and arms are made. Crimea is an extremely important square on the board, and Russia cannot survive if it is deprived of it. So, within days - just days - Putin sent his special forces, dressed as "protesters" and "rebels" into Crimea and Eastern Ukraine to stir up pro-Russian passions. They were highly trained, well equipped and took the entirety of the region in a matter of weeks. In order to quash any Western thought of military intervention or open rebellion, he amassed a huge military presence on the border. Undoubtedly, he would have invaded if his strategic objective had ever been in question. Since victory was never in doubt, he did not have to commit his additional forces. Crimea was won, Putin's popularity at home soared, and his standing in the world as a credible alternative to the West was solidified. 

The West's response was exceptionally weak. Individual Russian oligarchs are being sanctioned, as if by calling them out and seizing their assets, these businessmen might somehow overthrow Putin. Putin has an 86% approval rating. He is a former KGB director, and controls one of the largest militaries in the world. He is not going to be overthrown by some Russian oil barons who lost money. 

Even if those oil barons were inclined to revolt, they will never need to. Fresh on the heels of sanctions, Putin traveled to China and negotiated a ten year, $43 billion dollar deal to sell China all the oil they need. Who will be providing that oil to the world's new manufacturing Superpower? Russian oligarchs. And if that is not enough, Russia now has significant influence in the Middle East. In fact, Russia now owns or controls enough oil to crush the fragile Western economies with his own "sanctions." 

And that is his endgame. Oil is the world's most important strategic asset. Without it there is no manufacturing, no transportation, no commute to the office, and no war machine. Even a modest increase in oil prices has a chilling effect on our economy. Imagine what Putin could do to Western Europe by cutting off a third of its supply. 

Ultimately, Putin has positioned his pieces to gain a strategic advantage over the West by using quiet positioning to deprive the West of the middle of the board. He nevertheless knows that, in order to truly dominate the world, he will have to destabilize the United States, both politically and economically. We may believe that this cannot happen, but it is that belief that will create the very conditions necessary to see it come to fruition.