President Obama returns this week from his "foreign policy pivot," hoping his high profile visit to China and the G20 Summit will mute some of the domestic criticism. Presidents tend to turn to foreign policy when they are struggling at home as a way of reminding everyone of the extraordinary power and reach of the presidency. Unfortunately for the President, not only did his trip exacerbate already high tensions domestically, but it also reaffirmed for the American voters the reasons they voted against him in the last election.
As President Obama met with China's leaders, the Chinese were finishing up yet another muti-billion dollar gas deal with Russian President, Vladimir Putin. Putin has successfully negotiated three such agreements, ensuring that whatever sanctions the West place on his oil and gas industry will be offset by new money flowing in from Asia. You can get some background on his strategy here:
These energy deals also give Putin significant immediate leverage over Western Europe, just as winter comes. Most of Ukraine's heat comes from Russian gas. About 40% of Western Europe's gas heat comes from Russian gas. Western leaders have been assuming that, if worse comes to worse, they could levy "crippling sanctions" on Russia's oil and gas sectors, but really the contrary is true. Putin can cripple Ukraine without firing a shot, and hold Europe in check by the shock to their economies. They have underestimated him.
Meanwhile, President Obama also negotiated a deal with the Chinese. Not to bring down the trade deficit, or expand open markets, or protect intellectual property rights being pilfered by Chinese hackers. Nope. President Obama negotiated an environmental treaty that would cut American greenhouse emissions by 28% by 2028, while the Chinese will agree to "reach peak emissions" by 2030. In other words, we will cut our energy production, place further regulations on our energy sector and pass those costs along to Americans while the Chinese increase emissions for another 16 years. Now, even assuming the propriety of focussing on climate change rather than the long list of other problems between our two nations, President Obama got snowed. Then, as he inked his surrender on the issue, China rubbed some dirt in his eye by demonstrating their new stealth fighter, reverse engineered from stolen U.S. blueprints for the F-35. The optics for the President could not have been worse.
Unfortunately, this is what American voters have come to expect from President Obama and the left wing of his party. This is why they lost the last election so badly. The President travels overseas, focusses on a narrow, comparatively minor issue, and then can't even do that effectively. Meanwhile he stands by and watches the country get humiliated by someone else's military development, comes home and remains completely oblivious to the real threat of Russian strategic expansion.
And ISIS beheaded another American over the weekend.
It is this inescapable feeling that the world is on the brink and that the President is whistling past the graveyard that has led a large majority of Americans to question his leadership and the wisdom of allowing Democrats to stay in power in any capacity. It is a question of basic competence for most Americans. We cannot allow Vladimir Putin to outflank us at every turn. He has not withdrawn from Ukraine, he continues to supply new weapons to the rebels, and he continues to use direct military assets to obstruct Ukrainian efforts to end hostilities. Let us also not forget that he shot down a passenger airliner, killing 298 men, women and children. When winter is finally at its peak, the world will see the true scope of his global reach.
The world's problems are very complex and there is no one right answer to solve any of them. It is beyond arrogant for anyone or any party, including Republicans, to assume that they have a monopoly on bringing about "world peace," or to ushering in a new era of cooperation. It will also take a lot more time and a sustained effort to bring our rivals to heel and get our nation back on track. It starts, however, with setting priorities, and that is where the President can make a huge impact. By setting the right priorities, he can signal to the American people that he understands the problems we face and begin winning back our confidence for his legacy and his party.
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