Putin's Gambit, Revisited

This was predictable. In fact, I predicted it, and I'm neither an expert, nor alone. (http://libertyswindow.blogspot.com/2014/07/putins-game.html). 

Today, Vladimir Putin's Russia commenced airstrikes against both anti-Assad and ISIS forces in Syria. Shortly before the airstrikes began this morning, a three star Russian general appeared at the U.S. Embassy in Iraq and demanded to speak to the military attache deployed there. In what was apparently a heated exchange, the Russian general hand delivered a verbal order from Putin. U.S. forces are to cease Syrian operations. 

Apparently, the Obama Administration had no idea this had happened or that it was coming, notwithstanding the fact that Putin met with Obama in person two days ago. AP reporters on the ground in the Middle East had to awaken U.S. officials and alert them to the development. The Administration once again proved that it is asleep at the switch, literally.

Putin intends to keep Assad in power, as he no doubt promised to do when the two met early last year. He also has substantial regional support from Assad's allies. Shortly after Obama inked the Iran nuclear deal, Iran's top general traveled to Russia and met with Putin. It has only been four weeks, and in that time, Russia, Iran, Syria, and Shiite Iraq have formed a military alliance. Russia has now deployed attack aircraft, surface to air missiles, helicopters, tanks, armored vehicles, and about a thousand troops to Syria. If - and this is a big if - Putin is successful in defeating ISIS in Syria, he will have established a stronger foothold in the Middle East than we have.

Today also marks the first time since the 1970's that Russia has had a military deployment to the region. There is no doubt at this point that the United States needs to reinforce its weak position in the Middle East. We should have a large deterrent force in place in friendly countries, and we should redeploy to Iraq. Putin cannot be allowed to determine the fate of the region. We would almost certainly be on the losing end, as would our allies, and Israel in particular.

Nothing is certain, however. Not even for the great Vladimir Putin. Russia has now stepped into one of the worst quagmires in human history. The United States, a comparatively rich country, has spent decades and trillions of dollars trying to influence and control these countries. After near total failure, we decided as a nation to withdraw. We elected a President who did exactly that, damned be the consequences. Now it's Russia's turn. While I have no doubt that Putin will wage a much more direct and brutal war against the enemy, it will now be his nation spending the money, attracting the enemy's attention, and losing the soldiers. It seems unlikely to me that he will be any more successful than we were, but he has even fewer resources at his disposal. 

Russia's economy is about the size of Texas's. Russia's military, while huge, is poorly maintained. It possesses very advanced aircraft, but only about half are operational at any given moment. Most of its hardware is left over from the Cold War. More importantly, however, Russia is already overextended. It invaded Crimea and Ukraine. Both engagements were successful for Putin, but this invasion is qualitatively different.

Crimea and Ukraine border Russia. Syria does not. A significant portion of Crimeans and Ukrainians wanted to be part of Russia, and Russia has historically occupied both countries. By contrast, the Syrians already hate Assad and are unlikely to find Russian occupation any more palatable. In fact, Assad is neither a Sunni nor a Shia. He is an Alawite, which is itself a minority of the Syrian population. Choosing an unpopular dictator as an ally to establish your foothold in the Middle East invites defeat. That, combined with the remarkable tenacity of the opposition, will involve Russia in a much larger war than it is expecting. This is a concept with which Americans are all too familiar after decades of fighting Hussein, his army's remnants and then al Qaeda in Iraq. IEDs, roadside bombs, snipers, and extreme brutality await Russia and its soldiers.

And, to be clear, Russia will have to deploy ground forces. An airpower only strategy will no better work for Putin than it has for us. If Putin is serious about securing Syria, his nation will have to endure the same above-mentioned guerrilla tactics that we did. The Middle East cannot be won otherwise.

For better or for worse, the United States has been the dominant foreign influence in the Middle East since World War II. That has made us a target, it has cost us lives and money, but it has also ensured access to the world's most important strategic asset - oil. Until we do find a viable alternative, we have no choice but to continue protect our interest in an uninterrupted supply.

Winners, Losers, and Superheros From The Second Republican Debate

In case you missed it, it was a good debate. A strong field of Republican candidates, under a constant set of silly questions from CNN showed the world that they are the right party to be leading the nation. Everyone shined, but a few stars shined brighter. I'll get right to it.

CNN - Perpetual Loser

No one should be surprised that CNN, who once monopolized cable news, showed once again why it is now a marginal influence in the media. FoxNews failed too, but in a different way. Fox was narcissistic with the questions posed, and the personalities asking the questions were far more concerned with their own ratings than substance. CNN took media failure to an entirely new level by qualifying every single question with a perceived "attack" on the candidate. "Governor Bush, Mr. Trump has called you a fool and an idiot who supports murdering children. How do you respond?" No, it wasn't that bad, but you get the point. CNN - losers.

The Field - Winners

The Republican field was outstanding in this last debate. Each candidate seems to have settled in to his or her true persona. All looked very comfortable and no one took the bait when CNN's "second rate interviewers" (to channel Donald Trump) blasted them with ad hominem material. The maturity demonstrated by the candidates on that stage was exactly the maturity and skill we expected as Republicans when the campaign began. 

Home Run Hitter - Carly Fiorina

Just wow. You could not find a more articulate, passionate, serious conservative in this race. And she's a woman. Not that I am personally surprised by that. I surround myself with strong women and I was raised by a strong woman. I am exceptionally pleased, however, that we have such a serious and conservative candidate, capable of articulating conservative principles in a common sense way, who doesn't feel the need to talk about her gender. She is a superstar. When given the opportunity to pander to women, she politely declined, reminding the voters that women are actually the majority in this nation, and they are not a "special interest group."

She has no weakness that she cannot explain. She is obviously exceptionally competent at running for President. She was well prepared and, unlike most of the other candidates, she was precise in her recommendations. When offered the opportunity to discuss military issues, she had obviously been advised by experts, and she took that advice. She knows what she wants to do, right down to the number of divisions of Marines, and how many ships we need in the 6th Fleet. Outstanding. She could not have been more impressive.

One final thought. She's received enormous criticism about her "severe demeanor." That is sexist. I'm a conservative and I hate political correctness. But I'm telling you, that is sexist. She does not have to smile, be "likable" or talk about baking cookies or serving her husband. All Republicans and true conservatives would do best promote her as a fantastic candidate without regard to gender-specific issues, her appearance, or her "likability." To do less is to prove that everything the Democrats say about conservatives is true when it come to gender issues.

Carly Fiorina is severe. And it is appropriate. We are facing severe problems and serious issues. I want a serous person to deal with those issues. I don't care whether she smiles. 

Home Run Hitter - Marco Rubio

Rubio continues to demonstrate that he has the most well thought out position on the issues. He is also articulate, serious and a true conservative. He possesses a clarity of thought that the other candidates seem to lack (except Fiorina). He knows his own mind. His positions are well developed. As young as he is, he is a superstar and would make an excellent President. There is a plain honesty about him. When you listen to him speak, you just know he is being genuine - the same way Obama was and is genuine. The difference is, Obama is wrong on the issues and Rubio is not. If the Establishment wants to save the party from Donald Trump, they need to give up the Jeb Bush fantasy and throw their weight behind him.

Strikeout - Donald Trump

There is nothing wrong with supporting Donald Trump. You are not a bad Republican, bad person, neophyte, or loser for liking him. Trump best articulates the anger and frustration that the rank and file in the party feel. He is a showman and he pushes all the right buttons. But...

I had a conversation with a very well informed, intelligent friend about Trump. He articulated a number of solid reasons to support Trump. But there's one question that has to be answered about him before we make him President. Is he competent? 

Donald Trump had and still has no idea who the second tier global players are. He knows who the Ayatollah is, but he doesn't understand the interplay between the religious fanatics in Iran, the Russians, and the Kim cult in North Korea. He still does not know who the Quds are, even though he was called out in a radio interview two weeks ago on that very issue.

The worst moments for Trump in the debate were a result of the same shallow thinking he's demonstrated throughout this process. He was pressed about his comment that Fiorina's "face" couldn't get elected. Fiorina owned him in that exchange and he knew it. He didn't "win" that exchange, she did. His original comment was inappropriate and his attempt to redefine his comment was contrary to his "straight talk" persona. 

Then, having not learned his lesson, Trump lobbed some insult at Rand Paul about his looks in another exchange. Let's be realistic about this. Rand Paul is a fit, distinguished looking man. Carly Fiorina is a fit, attractive 61 year old woman. Donald Trump is married to an Eastern European supermodel who he left his last young wife for. "The Donald" is not fit, he is follicly challenged, and he is shorter than his opponents. His attacks on others about their appearance demonstrate both superficiality and a complete lack of physical self-awareness. They also reveal his own insecurities. The fat man calling a woman ugly is either a pig or insecure about his own appearance. Strike three.

Most Improved - Chris Christie

Christie had a good night. He had a few bad moments, but over all he was most improved. He didn't need to accuse Fiorina of interrupting him. He didn't need to lean so far forward on his podium, and he needs to lower his voice. That said, he is much better at articulating his positions than he was a month ago. He also did a much better job explaining his record in New Jersey. After his first debate, I was ready to write him off. His performance was just poor. After this debate, I think he is back in the game. He seems to be better at articulating conservative values and he is definitely doing a better job connecting with blue collar folks than the other candidates. 

The Elephant - Jeb Bush

The Republican Establishment is terrified. They are so scared that they sent the head of the RNC to Donald Trump's building to basically beg him not to run as a third party. What a farce. What a weak play. What a bunch of self-serving pansies. The RNC doesn't have the strength or courage to put forward a candidate compelling enough to castrate a political dilettante like Trump. It is pathetic. Of course, this is what we've come to expect from the RNC and the Republican Establishment and it is the reason they are losing the primary.

Jeb Bush is still the elephant in the room. There are candidates in the race who would be acceptable to the Establishment. But so long as Bush is in the race, he sucks up all the resources, most of the Establishment media attention, and is the best organized candidate because, well, the Establishment supports him.

Jeb did well. Someone clearly told him that he needed to man up and start acting like the blue-blood, third generation power player that he is. Trump can insult him for his low energy, but Bush knows everything there is to know about government, defense, foreign policy and war. His brother was a two term President and his father served one. They both went to war and they both won. I have to admit this, if the country were attacked tomorrow, I would probably vote for Jeb. I want the most competent, connected person with the best relationship to other experts to guide the country through the crisis. Taking a chance on Rubio or Fiorina or Trump would be unsettling under those circumstances. So, Jeb survived another debate. Good for him. He'll be the nominee if he makes it to the Convention.

The Uninspiring

Among the ranks of the uninspiring were Ted Cruz, Ben Carson, Rand Paul and Mike Huckabee. Dr. Carson just remains a fish out of water. His is obviously brilliant but he seems to lack the passion and the experience to be President. He seemed out of touch or just plain wrong with some of his responses, in particular his statement that he would not have invaded Afghanistan after 9/11.

Huckabee just seems to me to be yesterday's news and too reactionary. Spending three minutes of his precious time defending a Kentucky Clerk who refuses to provide marriage certificates, is three minutes lost. It's just not the most important issue in America.

Rand Paul continues to be one of the most important influences in the Republican Party. His libertarian views and his ability to clearly articulate those views have begun to frame the debate on a number of key issues. Unfortunately, he just cannot gain traction in a large field of candidates.

Finally, Ted Cruz. He sounds like an evangelical preacher in a mega church on Sunday. He can be talking about military deployments and he still sounds like a preacher. I don't like being preached at, and I suspect most other Americans feel the same way. He's a strong conservative and there is a long way to go in the race, but he's going to have to do more to separate himself from the pack.

The Dark Horse - John Kasich

There is no candidate more misunderstood. Even Fox calls him a "liberal" Republican. It's just absurd. I've been following politics closely since 1992. John Kasich won his first House seat in 1994. He tirelessly led the Republican party, as a freshman, through a government shutdown that resulted in a balanced budget. It was the first balanced budget since before World War Two. That is a major accomplishment and exactly what we need as a nation now. He has never done anything to make me thing that he's a "liberal." To the contrary, he is a strong advocate of tax reform, he is a fiscal conservative, and he is exceptionally competent. He'd make a great President and he did well in this debate. Again, however, until the field narrows, he will continue to be overshadowed by the louder candidates.

The Shredding Of The Paper Tigers

It was Mao Zedong's favorite thing to say about the United States as he led the Communist revolution in China. "The United States," he would say, "is very powerful in appearance, but in reality it is nothing to be afraid of. It is merely a paper tiger."

The irony. 

Now, nearly 70 years later, China's Potemkin Village, complete with empty office buildings, brand new unrented condos, and vacant pre-planned cities, is on the verge of collapse. The Chinese government (ever optimistic) has revised its growth projections from 10% down to 5%. By comparison, the United States has been growing at about 2% since 2008. The Chinese stock market has dropped 42% since June. Again, to put that in perspective, the Chinese stock bubble of 2007 only led to a 9% correction in the Shanghai market. In the United States, the stock market crashes of 1929 and the financial crisis of 2007 saw drops of approximately 54% over a 15 month period. Unless there is a substantial turn around in the Chinese market, it is not at all out of the realm of possibility that we could see another 12% in losses.

China's economy is centrally planned by its government. In other words, rather than allowing market forces to dictate the outcome of events, the government micromanages all sectors of the economy. They order buildings to be built, factories to be built, condos to be built. They directly invest in the their own stock market and are heavily invested in state run companies. And while many books have been written about the migration of global manufacturing to China, they can mostly be summed up by this: Large western companies, trying to avoid higher labor costs and unnavigable labor laws, decided to leave. The Chinese government, playing the long game, was more than willing to accept the gift, even if they never would be able to effectively manage it. This migration then confirmed Mao's observation, although not in the way he intended. The West has now joined China as paper tigers.

One obvious question is where the wealth went. China has the second largest economy in the world yet it is not a rich country. The obvious answer is that the wealth created by its new manufacturing base has been spent. It was spent building vacant offices and condos. It was siphoned off by corrupt government officials. It was spent on the largest military buildup of any nation since World War II. While the plight of the working class Chinese has no doubt improved, that improvement is limited, and the massive loss of revenue to the United States and Europe cannot be understated. We still manufacture things, but not on the same scale as we did 20 years ago. Instead we finance manufacturing that takes place in other nations. Our wealth is quickly being reduced to paper rather than tangible goods and, since most Americans don't participate in the paper economy, most do not profit from it.

Even conservatives agree that, in this country, wealth has become concentrated in the hands of a very few. Bankers, financiers, intuitional investors, money managers, and venture capitalists make much, much more than small or even medium sized manufacturing operations. The days of Andrew Carnegie building a new steel mill so that he could increase his already enormous wealth are over. So too are the days where a man could go to work in that steel mill and earn enough money to support a family, buy a car, and enjoy a new TV. Creating paper does not create jobs for Americans. It creates jobs for Chinese and Mexicans, and it creates enormous wealth for the paper holder.

Since 2008, the American economy has been propped up by artificially low interest rates, "quantitative easing" (which means money printing), and blind faith in a global economy it no longer owns. There are solutions. There are things that can be done, but there is no political will to do them. We could reform the tax code, but most people don't want to see the rich get richer without also seeing a direct benefit. We could reform our labor and employment laws to restore some balance to the employment relationship, but the labor unions, government sector employees, and self-proclaimed champions of the working-class would block it. We could reform our trade policies, to punish trading partners that devalue their currency, effectively taxing American imports. And, yes, we could tax the paper-makers at the same rate the rest of us pay.

America's greatness is not valued in dollars, but rather in the values of its people. America is great because of the fundamental principles upon which is was founded - limited, Constitutional government, individual liberty, and a basic respect for the dignity of all humanity. Even though we have managed to stand by and allow those principles to erode as of late, the trend is not irreversible. There is still time to shred the paper tigers and breathe new life into that old, ferocious animal that used to be our economy. Until then, however, we will continue to be at the mercy of every whim conjured by a foreign government. I, for one, find that unacceptable.

A Look At The Second Tier Republican Debate

Several readers have asked me what I thought about the candidates' performance in the second tier debate, which was held earlier the same day. The truth is, these candidates are polling so badly that it is very unlikely at this point that one of them would get the nomination. What's so interesting however, is that in any other election year these candidates would be favorites to win. Bobby Jindal, Rick Perry, and George Pataki all served two terms as governors of their states. They all have impressive records in their respective states, and they all have fairly significant organizational support behind their campaigns. Rick Santorum nearly took the nomination from Mitt Romney in 2012, winning 11 states and earning 4 million votes. To think of him now as an "also ran" is probably premature. Lindsey Graham has been a fixture in Washington for decades. One would think that based on his long record, he would be considered a more serious candidate. Finally there is Carly Fiorina. Ms. Fiorina has a short and poor record in politics. Her only effort was a race against Dianne Feinstein in California, which resulted in a landslide loss. As discussed more fully below, however, she is a very impressive candidate.

One candidate with no chance is former Virginia Governor Jim Gilmore. He has already been cut from the next Republican debate.

Winners

In the winners corner were Bobby Jindal and Carly Fiorina, both of whom should be considered strong Vice Presidential picks should this race be decided before the Republican Convention. Fiorina in particular stood out as someone with the ability to clearly articulate conservative principles. She was firm without sounding shrill. While comparisons to Margret Thatcher are premature, they may not be for long. She has that rare combination of tone, message, and wit needed for a Republican woman to stand up to the inevitable media assault on her as a person. 

Fiorina's biggest drawback is her record, or lack thereof. It goes without saying that one unsuccessful Senate run does not a politician make. However, this is an odd election cycle. Voters are rejecting insiders and career politicians in favor of the likes of Donald Trump. It would not be a stretch to imagine Fiorina vaulting to the top and then helping one of the career politicians keep his hold on the base during the general election. It also doesn't hurt that she's a woman.

Bobby Jindal was on the short list for VP in both 2008 and 2012. His record in Louisiana is impressive, although his poll numbers have dropped over the last two years. He was reelected in a landslide in 2011, but his failure to pass his tax reform plan and the partisan battle that took place over that proposal took its toll on him politically. Still, he is articulate, conservative and has a compelling personal story. He spoke so clearly during the debate that I had to remind myself he wasn't the front runner. He demonstrated a command of the issues and the ability to articulate a conservative vision.

Losers

Rick Perry and Lindsey Graham clearly lost the debate. Rick Perry has been a real disappointment as a presidential candidate. Perry has an exceptional record as governor. Texas is a great state and leads the nation in a number of economic categories. Perry has had a lot to do with that. In an informal setting, Perry seems articulate and confident. He moves gracefully from voter to voter sharing his vision for a conservative America. He seems like a regular guy who just wants to do the right thing for the country. Unfortunately, when he gets on a stage, Perry can't find a complete sentence with two hands and a flashlight. Same holds true for any formal interviews. You would think that, after ten years as governor, after being the president of the governor's association and after being a professional politician for most of his adult life, he would be able to speak clearly. But, he got on that stage and just like his aborted run in 2012, he fell completely flat. He looked like a golfer trying to find his swing in the middle of a bad round. When addressing some questions he looked like a deer in the headlights. On others he flailed his arms wildly trying to make his point. On substance he also appeared lost. Some of his answers made no sense at all. He's like the kid who everyone knows is a genius, but just "doesn't test well." It is unfortunate, but I think this ends his political career.

Graham just looked like a ghost, repeating over and over that he wants to take the fight to ISIS, "whatever it takes." As I discussed in my last post, "whatever it takes" is poor policy. Graham is unlikely to find a majority of Americans who will agree with his proposal to re-deploy a massive military force in the middle east to defeat ISIS. To be sure, that day may come, but a campaign focused exclusively on war is not going to be a winner. My guess is that he is not really serious about running for President and instead is looking for a position in the cabinet should the Republicans win.

Neutral

The rest of the field was fairly consistent. Rick Santorum and George Pataki are both experienced campaigners and polished speakers. Santorum has a gift for articulating a Reaganesque blue-color conservative vision for America. His best issue is his passion for the restoration of American manufacturing, which is probably the single most important domestic issue facing this nation. Sadly, Santorum is the only one talking about it. His plan for revitalizing American manufacturing is sound and based on conservative principles. It is an attractive message that will appeal to conservative Democrats and may earn some swing votes in the general election. While he hasn't polled well so far, my money is on Santorum finishing in the top five.

George Pataki has always been an enigma to me. On one hand, you cannot question his competence. He did a fine job in New York, which is a solid blue state. He was a champion of conservative principles but, due in large part to the make up of the legislature, he was forced to compromise one too many times for most of the Republican base. He also didn't do much except help guide the state through 9/11. If he wants to move up in the polls, he will have to do a better job of explaining how his record would translate into a conservative vision for America.

Winners and Losers of the Republican Debate

Last week's Republican debate was the most viewed primary debate in history. More than 24 million Americans tuned in to watch 10 men and three journalists spar over their records and the issues. Earlier in the evening another 7 candidates in the second tier got their chance in front of 5 million viewers. As most of you know, I try to keep the content of this blog unique. I'm not doing this to simply regurgitate the analysis of professional pundits and, in the case of these debates, there is plenty of analysis out there. Most of it is regurgitation - literally and figuratively. Here are my thoughts on the winners and losers.

Fox News - Winner

With a combined 29 million viewers between 5pm and 11pm, Fox News was obviously a winner. There is no question that this was a huge media grab for the network. The styling was gameshow slick, the stage was bright and colorful, and the hosts made Bob Barker look like a boring news anchor. In short, the showmanship was superb, if you believe politics is entertainment.

Fox News - Loser

But, Fox News may have also finally jumped the shark. Yes, the ratings were high. Yes, there was substance to the debate and some of the questions were good. But 24 million viewers did not tune in to watch Megyn Kelly. In fact, the American people tuned in to watch the next President emerge from the pack - whoever that may be. Fox News would do well to remember that drawing a huge crowd is only one part of success. You can fall flat too. If you appear too slick, or too partisan or too agenda driven, everyone sees it and you've lost more than you ever could have gained from a single ratings bonanza. 

I have been a loyal Fox viewer from the beginning. I've appreciated their success in restoring some balance to the media. But after watching that debate, I really question the future of the network and really all news media in general. The repeated questions about abortion - as if that were the only issue in America - the gotcha questions lobbed at Trump, and the general focus on everything except the actual issues really showed a lack of seriousness. 

We already knew that everyone on that stage was opposed to the Iran deal. We already knew that everyone on that stage was pro-life. We already knew that everyone on that stage thinks Obama has done a terrible job. Tell us something we don't know. Having failed to do that, and having turned American politics into something just short of a scene from Hunger Games or Running Man, Fox News failed the American people. My guess is most people tuning in for the first time may also have tuned in for the last time. Nothing truly newsworthy came out of the event and the network spent three hours afterwards analyzing a handful of 30 second snippets from the candidates.

Trump - Winner

Trump obviously survived his first debate. In a twisted way, he was lucky that Fox focused on his personal statements rather than pressing him on policy. My guess is Trump probably had no idea  who General Sulemani is, what army he leads or why it was bad that he went to Russia. Those who believe that Trump is qualified to be President because he hates politicians and has been reasonably successful in business are wrong. 

Donald Trump is not a self made man. He inherited $300 million from his father. He then used that to become a billionaire. Good for him. But the idea that he scraped his way to success through cunning and the "Art of the Deal" is just part of the Trump myth, which is carefully maintained to keep the Trump brand valuable. He has not demonstrated any command of any issue. Instead he channels the rage of the American people and uses that as leverage to remain relevant. 

Americans, and I am one of them, are absolutely finished with both parties. The establishments of both parties are made up of self-serving liars. They line their own pockets with our money and almost none of them is serious about solving any problems beyond their own. They take us for fools and continue to interfere with our daily lives to a degree usually only achieved by authoritarian regimes. Americans are fed up and Donald Trump is that voice. But rage is not a strategy and "to Hell with all of them" is not a policy. Trump is a showman and entertainer. He has excelled in this media-driven, gameshow environment. Eventually, however, Americans will settle down and select someone who has both the anger and the skill necessary to be effective. Trump just isn't that guy.

Rand Paul - Loser

Rand Paul represents the Libertarian wing of the party. The libertarian wing is extremely important to the party, but is constantly marginalized by the establishment. Rand Paul was overlooked in the debate, and when given the chance to interject, he failed to make a compelling case for himself. To be fair, it is easy to be shouted down by Chris Christie. Christie is a professional loud mouth and was determined to show Paul, who is usually measured, that he can shout down anyone with emotional anecdotes. Paul's strength is his measured demeanor and his intellect. In the future he needs to rely on that if he wants to succeed.

Chris Christie - Loser

Christie shouldn't even be in the race. Bridge-gate disqualified him, but the moderates in the party never gave up. Christie demonstrated both his greatest strength and his greatest weakness in that exchange with Rand Paul. Christie is bombastic. He is rotund. He likes to throw his weight around. He is also just plain wrong on many of the issues, and he is not a conservative. 

Christie favors broad gun-control, has raised taxes and fees in New Jersey, and was partly responsible for Mitt Romney losing the election after he endorsed President Obama with a hug. Christie told us during the debate that he favors unlimited surveillance to "keep Americans safe." His "whatever it takes" argument is not new. In fact, Lindsey Graham said exactly the same thing just a few hours before in the second tier debate. The problem is, "whatever it takes" is bad policy and ultimately these candidates can't possibly believe in it.

Does "whatever it takes" include lobbing nukes at ISIS? Does it involve declaring martial law? Does it include stop and frisk of all Americans any time, anywhere? Does it include reading every email communication? Does it include suspension of habeas corpus? 

Of course it doesn't. Anyone making a "whatever it takes" promise is foolish and ultimately lacks the intellectual discipline to be President. Either that or they are lying about their true position. Combine that with Christie's constantly raised voice and you get an unelectable candidate. Imagine that exchange with Hillary Clinton. He'd lose a huge chunk of the vote because most people don't like yelling, no matter who is doing it. 

Marco Rubio - Winner

Rubio is young, but he is by far the most articulate and well studied candidate on the stage. He has a command of the issues and has a gift for delivering his message. It doesn't hurt that he's handsome. The question for Rubio has been whether he has the gravitas to stand on that stage with older, more experienced candidates. I think he answered that question with a resounding "yes." He is conservative, ran against the establishment in Florida and embarrassed them in the process. He still has enough establishment support, however, to survive the nomination process, and he has sound policies for the future. In the short time that he had, he acquitted himself very well.

Jeb Bush - Winner

Jeb Bush did not distinguish himself. His squishy record on conservative issues should have been the target of every candidate on that stage. His brother's failure in his last two years as President, when he suddenly became a big government Republican, and his father's failed presidency should have been issue one for the rest of the field. The chances are exceptionally high that Jeb Bush will govern the same way his brother and father did. Now if you're the establishment in the Republican party, you like that - a lot. The Bushes were responsible for the largest deficit increases in the history of the country until Obama. Bill Clinton spent less. The Bushes play ball with Congress, handing out goodies and pork to get their big government agendas passed. They reach across the aisle to the likes of Ted Kennedy in an effort to "legacy build." They pass terrible bi-partisan legislation and give massive bailouts to their buddies. 

Jeb Bush is the establishment favorite. The party power brokers just hope he stays under the radar and avoids being obliterated by the conservatives in the race long enough to get to the Convention. Any debate that Bush walks away from is a good debate for him. In that sense, with all the attention focused on Trump, Bush got a free pass. That makes him a winner.

The Field - Neutral

The rest of the field survived. They did not distinguish themselves, but they didn't entirely self-destruct either. Ted Cruz and Mike Huckabee are solid conservatives and both are articulate. Neither, however, had a real opportunity to lay out his policies.

Ben Carson looked like a fish out of water because he is. He is great for the party, and he is a great addition to the debate. His answer on the race question and his closing argument were brilliant, reflecting a true genius. He probably helped himself a little with his performance, but he will continue to be eclipsed by the professional politicians and Donald Trump.

Scott Walker will not be President. He managed to breathe new death into the pro-life movement with his answer to Megyn Kelly's 187th question on abortion. When asked whether he would force a mother to die rather than allow her to have an abortion, he had no answer. Instead be began prattling on about the wonders of modern medicine as if that circumstance would be exceptionally rare. Rare or not, his position on the issue is Medieval. Either he failed to articulate his position clearly, or he really doesn't favor any exceptions to a total ban on abortion. If he really does not believe in a "life of the mother" exception, then he is done. Women are not going to vote for a man who would rather them die than have an abortion. It's really that simple.

Finally, there is John Kasich. Kasich is a conservative and has a long record as a Congressman and Governor. There is no question that he is competent and he would make an excellent President. Unfortunately, he didn't really do anything to distinguish himself. But that's not really his style. Kasich is a policy guy. He really knows the issues and wants to talk about the issues. Unfortunately, with 9 other men on that glitzy stage, he just looked like the working-class guy he is. He can't stand out until the field narrows, but I suspect he will continue to rise in the polls.

Man And His Symbols

There was an article the other day in the Atlanta Journal and Constitution in which the local head of the NAACP called for the removal of all confederate symbols and remnants from Stone Mountain. For those of you who do not know, Stone Mountain is a large granite mountain just outside of Atlanta. Among those things to be struck off, the NAACP would have us remove the images of three confederate generals atop their horses, which are carved into the face of the mountain.  

Atlanta is a unique place. Not only was it the birthplace of Martin Luther King, but it was also the place in which Margret Mitchell wrote Gone with the Wind. It was the site of many of the fiercest battles of the Civil War, and there are monuments and plaques commemorating those battles throughout the metropolitan area. Stone Mountain Park is one of those places, and every summer, thousands of visitors tour the park. They learn a little about Civil War history along the way. But in the current climate, it appears anything confederate must go. So the images of proud confederate generals riding into battle must be purged from our state and national parks, along with the battle flag of the Army of Northern Virginia.

There is no doubt that symbols are important. They convey the establishment of an ideology. A cross, for example, standing on top of a hill, conveys the message that Christians are welcome there. An American flag on the back of a pickup truck conveys patriotism. The battle flag of the Army of Northern Virginia, also known as the Confederate Flag, conveys different things to different people. That was the flag flown during an untold number of civil rights atrocities. It was the flag flown at Klan rallies and in defiance of the Civil Rights Act of 1964. That flag has a violent history, both as a battle flag during the civil war and also during reconstruction, but that violent history does not necessarily define the symbol.

It was the American flag that flew as General Sherman exterminated the Native Americans in the war to conquer the west. The American flag flew over Japanese internment camps during World War II. The American flag flew as the atomic bomb was dropped on civilians, as Tokyo and Berlin were firebombed, and as villages were relocated in Vietnam. We do not, however, remove the American flag from our capitals or our pick up trucks. Why? Because the flag is a representation of who we are, both good and bad. One can be a patriot and still acknowledge that the American flag flew over historical events that have been characterized by many as atrocities. We guard our symbols because they convey our history.

President Obama was going to be transformative. He was going to heal the racial wounds in our society, and bring people of all colors together. Instead, his Justice Department has been racially divisive, and the President himself stumbles into difficult situations and makes them worse with racially charged rhetoric. President Obama has failed African Americans as a leader. African Americans are even more impoverished than they were when he took office. Race riots are worse. Incidents of police brutality are perceived by the African American community to be on the rise. Having failed to address the core issues underlying racial tensions, having squandered the opportunity to bring real change and power to the African American community, all that is left is to tear down the symbols. 

It is a sad truth that the civil rights movement in this country has been reduced to removing flags and destroying monuments in state parks. The phrase "Black Lives Matter" demonstrates the inertia the movement faces. The reduction of civil rights to a statement of the obvious is telling. The opportunity for real change was lost, and some must find symbolic victories to justify the emotional energy and trust placed in President Obama.

So tear down the symbols. Rewrite the history. Replace the faces on our money. Purge the South of any remnant of its conflicted past. Ignore any part of the history of the Confederacy, beyond slavery. Stamp out any remaining notion that the South has any right to quiet rebellion against a big northern government with little use for a few rednecks. As the symbolic victories mount, however, the chance for real victories diminishes even further. Symbolic victories are always expensive, they accomplish little, and they almost always come at the sacrfice of other objectives. Real change doesn't come from pealing flags off the bumpers of cars. It comes from signficiant disussion and compromise. Real change is never as easy as tearing up a granite mountain.  

Obama Confirms His Place In History As The First Adolescent President

Shortly before the Fourth of July, President Obama gave a speech to students and faculty at the University of Wisconsin. In it he said of the Republican Party:

"And I want to emphasize -- I know some of them well. They’re good people. It’s just their ideas are bad. (Laughter and applause.) And I want to emphasize that. We’re one country, we’re all on one team, and so we’re all one American family. But we all go -- we're at Thanksgiving and Uncle Harry starts saying something and -- (laughter) -- you say, “Uncle Harry, that makes no sense at all.” You still love him. (Laughter.) He’s still a member of your family. Right? But you’ve got to correct him. You don’t want to put him in charge of stuff. (Laughter and applause.) That’s all I'm saying. (Applause.)"

President Obama's "Uncle Harry" remark was taken by some to be offensive, or containing racial overtones. The old, white, senile uncle just can't get it right and has to be "corrected" by his young relative. Personally, I didn't find this remark to be racially offensive. Nor do I believe that President Obama intended to convey any offense of any kind. After all, President Obama is mostly white, was raised by his white grandparents, and probably did have to suffer through Thanksgivings as a young man with old, white, misguided Uncle Harry.

His remark was arrogant, however, and demonstrates a stunning lack of perspective. Apart from feeling the need to "correct" those with whom he disagrees, the President also discounts entirely any contribution old Uncle Harry may have to the conversation. Old Uncle Harry may be a little off his game now, but he was a veteran of two wars, witnessed the rise and fall of tyrannical regimes, lived through Watergate and lived under the constant threat of nuclear annihilation. Old Uncle Harry held down jobs during good and bad economies. He lived through 90% tax margins in the 60's, Stagflation in the 70's, the economic boom of the 80's and 90's, and the collapse of 2008. When Uncle Harry was a boy, his Uncle used to tell stories about the Great Depression and total loss. Around Uncle Harry's dinner table as a boy, his relatives discussed the New Deal, the TVA projects and World War II. Their first person accounts of those events left an impression on young Uncle Harry. One that he took with him for the rest of his life.

A generation later, Uncle Harry sits across from young President Obama at the dinner table at Thanksgiving. He watches the President snicker at him, roll his eyes at him. He patiently listens as young President Obama pronounces the truth of all things to the table of diners. Then, after listening patiently, he offers his opinion. Uncle Harry's opinion is perhaps inarticulate. He perhaps says it slowly. But, his opinion is based on a lifetime of actual experience, beyond what he read in books as a school boy. Obama winces as he hears Uncle Harry's remarks, and eagerly steps in, like any other omniscient teenager, to "correct" the older man. Because he is still just a boy, the older, wiser Uncle Harry chooses not to humiliate Obama with any further debate at the table. "He will learn, eventually," Uncle Harry says to himself.

Unfortunately, President Obama never learned. This morning, he has inked a deal with Iran, the world's largest sponsor of terrorism, ensuring that they will obtain nuclear weapons in the next 20 years. Uncle Harry would never have signed such a deal. There are only modest restraints on Iran's ability to develop delivery systems. The restraints on Iran's ability to enrich nuclear materials appear reasonable, but the inspections regime is inherently flawed. In order to have any inspection of an Iranian facility suspected of manufacturing nuclear weapons, the world must give Iran 14 days notice. Then, Iran may reject the request, at which time the world has 10 days to make a counterproposal. In other words, Iran gets 24 days to move all of its weaponry out of one facility to another during the delay. Only a child would make such a deal.

President Obama was devoured in negotiations by a number of older, much crazier Uncle Harrys. Uncle Harry might ruin Thanksgiving with talk of lowering taxes or doing away with entitlements, but the President's new Iranian Uncles ruin all holiday meals with a "Death to America" chant during grace. And let us not forget the most important failure of this deal: Iran is legally allowed to enrich Uranium at the end of a 15 year period. They will have the bomb.

And what will old, crazy Uncle Ali do with those weapons? He's already told us, while sitting across the table from the President's representatives. Death to America. Death to Israel. Down with the Great Satan.