It has been the case historically that the party of the President loses seats in the midterm elections. This year it is widely expected that Republicans will make even more significant gains than usual. Obamacare continues to flounder, children, adults, criminals and gangs continue to flood our border, and America appears impotent to stop the steady march of terrorism and aggression throughout the world. Obama and the Democrats are facing steep odds and voters have the distinct impression that the world is ablaze. All of that notwithstanding, we have seen Republicans squander big leads before with unforced errors, poor policy decisions, marginalizing their base, and misreading the rest of the electorate. Below are five things Republicans can do to blow the lead once again.
1. Make the Crisis at the Border about Deporting Children.
There is a crisis at the border. It is almost certainly Obama's fault. It is time for Republicans to step up, on their own if necessary, and begin to take care of what has become a humanitarian disaster. The pictures coming from these camps are truly disturbing. Children are living in squalor, they are scared, and many are hungry. Many of those children have already suffered terribly to just get to this country. Some have been raped and some have endured sickness and disease. All have endured Summer heat in the desert, and it is very likely that many have died. This is an opportunity for conservatives, particularly Christian conservatives, to show the world what true mercy looks like.
Unfortunately, many Republicans are delaying their missions of mercy. Instead we are hearing many Republicans insist that these children must be immediately deported, so that they can send a strong message back to their home countries that there is no hope for them in America.
America used to be the world's beacon of hope. For many families in the world, it still is. It makes us feel good about ourselves as Americans to believe that our country has been historically seen as a hopeful place in which hard work and a good idea can make anyone succeed. In addition, American voters act to protect children at nearly every opportunity. Every election is about children and, as parents know all too well, once you have kids, they dominate your decision making. Americans cannot live with themselves if their choices harm children. It is that simple.
So, as the election approaches, it is unwise for Republicans focus their efforts on deporting a bunch of sick, traumatized children. Regardless of your personal view on the matter, the optics will be devastating. It would be much better for Republicans to embrace their conservative, faith and family based values, and do whatever can be done to bring love comfort to these kids. It is what Jesus would do. Leave the talk of deportation out of the debate until the humanitarian crisis is under control.
2. Talk about Female Reproduction.
Most men learn from an early age that it is impolite to talk about a woman's "private parts." Some men get into politics and forget this very important norm in our society. Women do not want male politicians to talk about their bodies, what they do with their bodies, how they reproduce and when, what they use to prevent pregnancy or how they feel when those methods fail. Of course, some issues are unavoidable and Democrats love to talk about female reproductive health. For Democrats, it is a wedge issue. Don't fall into the trap. Democrats have become masters of baiting Republican candidates into saying stupid things about abortion, contraception, sexual education - related specifically to girls - and vaccination. They raise these issues because they want the conservative candidate to open his mouth and embarrass himself. When he does, they run that soundbite throughout the election and "prove" that he is against women. The Republicans lose a seat.
The issue of abortion is a moral and medical issue, and it affects men as well as women. It does not, however, affect the sexes equally. Contraception is also a medical and moral issue. These are primarily women's issues, and simply will not be resolved by men. Women will have to first reach a consensus on what is acceptable and what is not. Rightly or wrongly, most women, even conservative women, do not think men are qualified to take the lead in resolving these issues. Input - yes; "leadership" - no. So, if abortion is your fight, make sure you have a woman out front taking the lead.
The fastest way to lose a female vote is to say something stupid or disrespectful about her body. The better approach is to just fall back on that old boyhood lesson - she does not want you to talk about her private parts - so don't.
3. Talk about Impeachment.
It should go without saying, but asking voters to elect you so that you can drag the country through another impeachment argument is not a very good message. Bill Clinton was impeached, survived, and then proceeded to wipe the floor with Republicans during the next election because voters believed they had overreached.
Obama is not a very good President. He has consistently failed to gain a consensus on any significant issue, and he continues to simply forge his own path through regulatory action. His approval ratings are low as a result. Sun Tzu counseled that, when your opponent is busy destroying himself, stay out of the way. Impeachment should not be part of the discussion.
4. Run to Repeal Obamacare and Offer no Alternative.
Healthcare is a major problem in this country. It was a problem before Obamacare and it has been a problem ever since. Republicans set the conditions under which Obamacare could be made possible by failing to work towards serious healthcare reforms when they had control of the government. Shortly before Obama was elected, many Americans woke up and realized that $25,000.00 a year for a family of four is far too expensive for health insurance. Obamacare does nothing to fix this, but repeal alone is not an acceptable alternative.
Republicans who believe that Americans will simply fall at their feet because they opposed Obamacare are underestimating the electorate. Yes, most people are not as in tune with politics and government as they should be in a Republic, but voters are not stupid. About 10 years ago, companies began to move to towards high deductible plans that required employees to pay almost all of their contribution up front. This was called "consumer driven" health insurance because it encouraged employees to use less medical care by forcing them to come out of pocket. This trend was very difficult on many employees and their families who understandably began looking for true reforms.
Republicans have the rare opportunity to use Obamacare as a political weapon against the Democrats while forging a realistic alternative. Democrats have lost all credibility on the issue, so Republicans could steal the ball and run with it. That is, if they decide to forge a real alternative. Simply being against it will not be enough to convince voters to get to the polls.
5. Marginalize the Base.
Elections are won by voter turnout. The bases of the political parties are paramount to organizing voter turnout and expanding the electorate. Establishment Republicans have been sticking their fingers in the eyes of the base for three years now. They have largely refused to defend Tea Party Republicans or give them any real seat at the table in the Congressional leadership. Establishment political groups actively interfered with the primaries, and they hold up a small handful of poor Tea Party backed candidates as an excuse to drive the base out of the process. The Establishment got what it wanted in the last election - the loose coalition of conservatives that make up the base of the party stayed home - and Romney lost.
The Establishment is making the same mistake again. While they seek to destroy "unfit" candidates, they turn off the large segment of voters that are tired of Democrats Light ruling the party. True Republicans were horrified by the spending in the last two years of the Bush Administration. The overreach of government and the bank bailouts, followed by the coronation of John McCain as the Republican standard bearer, created a revolution within the party. Conservatives needed to find their own candidates and throw out the Big Government Republicans. The Establishment was obviously not happy with this and has now done everything it can to marginalize the conservative trouble makers.
Well, they better make nice and they better make nice quickly. The Establishment figures they cannot lose this election, even if their base stays home. That, of course, is what Mitt Romney thought.
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