As the Lusitania Sinks, The World Yawns

When the British cruise liner, the Lusitania, left New York harbor on May 1, 1915, the United States government had issued a stern travel warning to all Americans thinking of traveling on the luxury boat. The Germans had declared "unrestricted submarine warfare" in the Atlantic Ocean. The North Atlantic had been declared a war zone, and travel was not advised.  128 Americans failed to heed that warning and, on May 7th, they were killed when a German submarine torpedoed the vessel. It has never been clear whether the attack was an accident or whether the Lusitania was targeted for carrying munitions. Either way, it sunk after 20 minutes and everyone died.

Two years later, the United States declared war on Germany, entering World War I in a late, but effective, campaign. Prior to the Lusitania, the American people were decidedly neutral in the Great War. After the Lusitania, war was inevitable. 

As we all know by now, Russian separatists in Eastern Ukraine, using sophisticated Russian surface to air missiles, shot down a Malaysian Airlines jet carrying 298 passengers. Almost all of the passengers were European, but there was one American. All of them are now dead. The world response has, so far,  been flaccid. The Dutch, who lost 128 citizens, have announced that Russia and Putin "have one last chance" to "get this right," whatever "this" means. President Obama has of course condemned the "crash," and called for a "cease fire." Following Obama's lead, Europe has collectively yawned.

The historical parallels between where we are now and where we were during the run up to World Wars I and II is disconcerting. You can almost smell the remnants of the Holy Roman Empire in the West and the Ottoman Empire in the East reaching their final decay before fracturing into rival powers. The global naiveté is stunning. When Putin invaded and annexed parts of Georgia, he was rewarded with the Winter Olympics. When Putin invaded and annexed all of Crimea, the world did little more than blink. When Putin turned his special forces loose on the Ukraine to destabilize the eastern region, the world stood up and declared with one loud voice that, well, they do not really "approve" of such things in a 21st century. Annexing Crimea was "not in Russia's best interests," the world declared, as if world opinion defines "Russian interests." Besides, it is argued, Ukraine is not really in a "real war." Russia is not really a "global foe." Israel should "exercise restraint." And, of course, "the border is secure." 

We are living in denial; the kind of denial that leads to tragedy. An airliner flew over airspace in which similar looking aircraft had been shot down by surface to air missiles just two days earlier. Why? Because the world does not really believe that the Russo-Ukrainian conflict is a war and, even if it were, the world has forgotten what western warfare looks like. These were not a couple of Jihadis with an RPG. These were Russian soldiers using missiles specifically designed to shoot down F-18s and U.S. bombers. No one should have been flying over Eastern Ukraine, just like no one should have been traveling from New York to Liverpool on the Lusitania. 

Now every western country is demanding access to the crash site in order to "investigate" the wreckage. The West is searching for "evidence." Our ambassador to the United Nations, Samantha Powers, says that our goal is to "build an airtight case against Russia" and demonstrate that it was a Russian missile under Russian command that shot down that airplane. 

I ask you, quite simply, why? Are we going to arrest Putin? Are we going to put him on trial? Are we going to "bring him to justice"? As Ms. Powers herself said, we already have all the facts we need to conclude that Russia supplied a sophisticated missile system, probably with Russian commanders, to Russian commandos in Eastern Ukraine, which was then used to shoot down a passenger jet. "Investigations" and "building a case" are just excuses to delay action, probably forever.

World War is possible, not when the world confronts aggression, but when the world ignores it. The same pan-slavic nationalism that helped balkanize eastern Europe is alive and well in Russia and the former Soviet states. The Middle East continues to burn. There is an emerging power in Asia, already fielding a formidable military. The U.S. is in decline, withdrawing from the world and reeling from a decade of anemic economic growth. It is 1915. It is 1935. 

And storm clouds are on the horizon.